Morettini on Management

General Management and Marketing Advice for Software and Tech Companies

Category: market research

Health of the Tech Economy

I was reading an article recently about how the number of new tech startups in my local San Diego area has doubled, to 70 new companies, compared to the same quarter last year. More than half of those startups were in software, computer hardware or communications. The article included a number of other criteria useful in measuring the health of the local technology market.

The direction of these measuring criteria for technology market health was somewhat mixed: Local tech employment was up, patents up sharply and M&A activity was up as well. Total Venture Capital fundings, which is an extremely important factor in tech company formation, came in less than half the comparable quarter a year ago.

So are these results a good proxy for the state of the broader technology business overall? I think they represent a very good set of indicators. Let’s take a closer look at some of these factors in a broader geographic view, in addition to a couple of additional indicators that I’ve added to the mix:

TECH EMPLOYMENT

I’ve added tech employment as it’s obviously a very key indicator of the health of any sector. Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that the number of planned layoffs in technology fields fell to just under 47,000 in 2010, the lowest yearly total for the sector since 2000. The firm says this signaled that technology is recovering more quickly from the economic downturn than employers in other sectors.

During the next 10 years, the tech sector is forecast to experience one of the fastest paces of job creation of any industry. There are many anecdotal reports of strong demand for tech talent, especially in the crucial Silicon Valley market. Nearly 150,000 tech jobs are expected to be added in the US in 2011, says Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. In February, there were about 6.1 million tech jobs in the U.S., up 2.4 percent from a year ago.

Tech sector employment trends appear much more positive than in the overall economy.

VENTURE CAPITAL FUNDING

The estimated market value of venture capital-financed companies in the U.S. rose 19% in 2010’s fourth quarter and 23% for 2010, according to the Dow Jones U.S. Venture Capital Index. The bulk of this is technology, and past returns are a very good indicator of amount of VC capital that will be available going forward. When VC funds have good returns, more money pours into their new funds, creating greater amounts of capital available to new startups in the future.

CB Insights report on Venture Capital Fundings in Q1 2011 showed total invested capital rose to $7.5B, up from $6.5B in Q4 2010 and $5.9B in Q1 2010. While a bit choppy, the funding trend has been generally up since Q2 2009. Again, this is bullish for the tech sector, which relies more heavily than most industries sectors on VCs for capital formation. Venture capital is still harder to come by than before the recession. However, while still down significantly from the go-go days prior to the recession, Venture capital availability is still a positive indicator of the tech economy’s health going forward.

M&A

The best tech M&A data currently available is from the first quarter of this year, and it is very bullish indeed. Mergermarket’s report on global M&A activity, published in April 2011, paints a bullish picture for acquisition activity in the early part of this year. This report shows the total value of worldwide technology M&A deals rose to $27,872,000 in Q1 2011, up very strongly from $10,729,000 in Q1 2010, even though the total number of deals decreased by 3 in this period. The numbers for North America were comparable.

It should be noted that while Q1 2011 compared very well to the same quarter in 2010, in both North America and Worldwide the trend was down from Q4 2010. So while M&A activity has picked up very strongly since the recession officially ended, the short term trend of the last quarter wasn’t a positive indicator for the future. This means that M&A activity is a bit of a mixed bag with respect to measuring the health of the tech economy.

TECH CAPITAL SPENDING

Forrester Research predicts that IT spending will increase in 2011 by a healthy 7.5% in the US, and 7.1% worldwide.

InformationWeek conducted a survey which showed that 55% of information technology professionals said their companies will increase information technology spending in 2011, while only 19% expect it to fall and 26% expect it to remain unchanged.

“Technology executives clearly see a sustained recovery of relevant Products/Services and a strong appetite for technology-related purchases by U.S. companies and consumers, which helped raise the position of the U.S. market,” said Gary Matuszak, partner, global chair, and U.S. leader for KPMG’s technology practice. “Coupled with demand from emerging-market countries, this combined opportunity bodes well for the industry.”

Technology capital spending trends, particularly in the US, provide a positive sign for the health of the tech economy.

TECH STOCK MARKET VALUES

The Dow Jones US Technology Index is up almost 20% over the last 12 month period. Stock values are very volatile and are affected by many factors other than the overall health of the sector, particularly in the short term. But over time they are a very good indicator of the health of the sector.

What Does It All Mean?

The indicators that we’ve taken a look at offer a mixed bag of conflicting signals up and down. While it appears more of the signals are pointing up than down, we are in an economy with a lot of uncertainty, and no definitive direction that can be predicted with any confidence. However, the software and technology sector appears to be in much better shape in the near term than both the US and worldwide economies overall. Farther out, the prospects for the tech sector appear to be much more bullish, especially when considering very long-term timeframes such as the next decade. Every company needs to draw their own conclusions about the economic impact on their market segment and individual company prospects. But in a larger sense, the arrow for the tech economy is more likely point up than down. If I’m the CEO of a software or tech company, the overall tech economy would be a positive factor in my decision matrix going forward.

So where do you personally think we’re at? Have we recovered, in the process of recovering, or is the tech business still treading water or going backwards? Post a comment and let us know where your own company’s situation stands with respect to recovery and future prospects.

Follow Phil Morettini and Morettini on Management via Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, RSS, or the PJM Consulting Quarterly Newsletter. Contact Phil directly at info@pjmconsult.com

Will Smartphones Replace PCs?

Smartphones are taking over the world–the tech world, at least. The computing buzz these days is decidedly mobile. The question is “where does it end”? Do Smartphones continue their growth until they are the dominant or sole computing platform, or does this trend stop somewhere short of that? Let’s look as some of the factors that will drive the market:

Processors

The state of microprocessors used in Smartphones will go a long way in deciding the ultimate outcome of this discussion. We’ve seen similar scenarios to the Smartphone phenomenon before, and history tells us that microprocessors will keep progressing on all three major computing platforms. History also says that applications have always grown in size and capability to take advantage of the increased level of processing power and memory available at a given cost. In addition, desktop PCs (and laptops to a lesser degree) don’t have the extreme power constraints that a pure mobile platform like a Smartphone does. If historical trends hold true, it won’t bode well for Smartphones becoming the dominant computing platform, because PCs will continue to have an inherent advantage in software capability due to more powerful hardware. If there is a leveling off in PC processor capability, Smartphones will have more of a chance to overtake them as the primary computing platform.

Screens

Screen size and power consumption are also very important to this argument. Until holograms become standard, screen size will always be an important factor is choosing where to do your computing. This doesn’t bode well for a total Smartphone takeover of computing.

Keyboards

Keyboards are an analogous issue to screens; once voice input becomes standard in the computing world, keyboard size will seize to be an issue, tilting the field toward Smartphones. But until this happens, all but the insane will prefer typing on a PC keyboard over anything available in the Smartphone world (although there have been definite improvements in Smartphone keyboards).

Batteries

Battery life is also a major driving factor in the capability of Smartphones. While mobile processors and memory will almost certainly continue to provide greater compute capability at lower power consumption, desktops essentially have no power constraints (except for the very green-conscious). Even laptops come with an assumption of working at least part of the time where they can be plugged in. There could come a day where batteries are so powerful and hardware is so miserly in power consumption that battery life is no longer a major issue. Until that day, however, the checkmark goes to PCs.

Software

There are two aspects of software that are important to this discussion. The first is the number and breadth of applications available–the Smartphone category has already blown through this checkpoint. Hundreds of thousands of applications are already available on Smartphone platforms. Smartphones are already in the mainstream from a software assortment perspective. The second question is the sophistication/capability of the infrastructure software available, to ensure whether bleeding edge technology can be used on a platform. While Smartphone infrastructure and tools aren’t t yet as powerful and mature as what’s available on PCs, things are moving fast and I don’t see this as a major issue preventing Smartphone dominance.

New Hybrid Smartphone/Laptops

This embryonic platform holds the promise of being a game-changer in the market, tilting the advantage towards Smartphones as your primary (and possibly only) computer. What I’m referring to is a normal Smartphone “docked” into a laptop accessory shell, providing a larger screen, keyboard and maybe even bigger battery while using the same interface and software available on your Smartphone. This allows all of your files and computing occur on a single device, which would represent a major breakthrough for users. It’s the holy grail of computing. You may have seen ads for one of the early models, the Motorola Atrix “Lapdock”; or heard about the recently announced ASUS Padfone hybrid Smartphone/Tablet. It’s still very early in this segment and definitely uncertain how it will turn out. As in any early market, prices are still high, and the early devices don’t quite work as well as you’d like. But the paradigm is a powerful one. If the companies bringing out these devices stick with it, continue to innovate and introduce next generation devices that meet market expectations, this is a product that could truly be a PC killer. Only time will tell if this category will become the next generation of computing, or peter out like so many other great ideas that weren’t carried out to the required maturity.

I realize that tablets are becoming an important part of the computing ecosystem, but for simplicity I’ve considered them a next generation laptop in the context of this discussion.

I can’t say I know how this eventually works out. If I had that type of view into the future, I’d be in Vegas placing bets rather than writing this article. But using history as a guide, I think all three major platforms–desktops, laptops and Smartphones–will be with us for a long while.

I do think there will be a re-alignment in computing market share among the main platforms. I see desktops continuing a slow decline in share and eventually becoming specialist computers, used only where the ultimate in computing power is required. Smartphones have already staked their claim as the new growth platform. How far this growth goes is the only question. The wildcard is the new hybrid category. I believe that these devices could become the dominant primary computing platform if the hybrid Smartphone/laptop category takes off–which is far from a certainty at this time. If hybrids don’t take off, I believe screen, keyboard and processor limitations will prevent Smartphones from becoming the dominant computing platform anytime soon.

That’s my forecast–what’s your opinion on the direction computing will take? Do desktops eventually go away completely? Are they replaced by a Smartphone/laptop hybrid device? Do two of these three platforms survive, or will all three co-exist in the future as they do now?  I’d be interested in your own forecast–leave a comment to further this discussion.

Follow Phil Morettini and Morettini on Management via Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, RSS, or the PJM Consulting Quarterly Newsletter. Contact Phil directly at info@pjmconsult.com

High Tech Market Research for New Products

One of the biggest problems in High Tech businesses is the “technology-driven” approach that tends to predominate, especially among startups. Much of this occurs due to the fact the many founders of software and technology companies tend to come from an engineering, programming or other technical background. While a strength in creating a flow of technical innovation, this can be a real problem when companies are planning new products which they hope to find a real market for.

Everyone has a tendency to focus on what they know best; that’s just human nature. Folks spend more time on the issues that they enjoy, are more comfortable with, and are more confident about their ability to make good decisions on. Things that don’t fit into this category tend to be put off, or given short shrift.

The result is often products are well thought out from a technical viewpoint–but much less well so from a “meeting market needs” perspective. While both are important, the market perspective is absolutely critical initially. So what’s the right approach to product planning-oriented market research?

When Should The Research Should Be Conducted?
The answer to this is early, often and forever. The earlier you start prior to design or coding, the more time you will have to obtain the most accurate picture of the market that’s possible. Sometimes there are practical limitations to how early you can start–Trade secrets and patent filings, for example, or the lack of a prototype which may be considered crucial to receiving realistic market feedback. Within these limitations, get out and begin interacting with the marketplace as soon as practical. And don’t ever stop. Markets, especially the software and technology variety, are like living organisms. They are constantly growing and changing. What may be true in the early phases of a market could change dramatically over even a short period of time. Companies tend to develop an internal “common sense” that is used in making decisions, which is based upon past inputs. When doing Product Planning this can very dangerous in a dynamic market.

Who Should Do The Research?
The best way to do this research is what I often refer to as the “two-headed monster” approach: one marketing person, and one technical person. Not a lone wolf if you can help it, and please–no committees. Most often, this would be a Product (Marketing) Manager along with the Engineering Project Manager who will lead the actual development of the project. In the smallest startups, it might be the technical founder and the “business” founder, for example the CEO and CTO, or CEO and VP Marketing. The Business/Marketing manager should be in the lead for this task, but it’s important to note that both camps have a role to play in this endeavor. There are two different perspectives on market feedback, and well as two different priorities in questions to ask. Having both parties involved (assuming there isn’t a dysfunctional relationship) usually leads to the most complete and risk-reducing result. In addition, it often eliminates arguments over priorities later in the process after coding starts (and schedules inevitably begin to slip) If only one can be available, it should be the Marketing side–working closely with the Product Development/Engineering lead to make sure their input is included in the process.

How Should The Research Be Conducted?
This is a really broad question which of course depends heavily on the situation. How much do you have available to you in terms of money and other resources? If you’re in a big company, you may be able to commission some objective research. If you are a startup with modest resources, it usually is an ad hoc exercise of visiting and interviewing potential customers.

What’s most important to keep and open mind, and eliminate your own biases and pre-conceived notions. This exercise needs to be a search for the truth, not an attempt to validate your own theories. Also, make sure that you are talking to the right people. If you are planning a market-creating breakthrough product, you really need to be talking to Early Adopter types, not the guy or gal that only buys after everyone else they know. If you are introducing a product that is very similar to other products in an already large market–but maybe at a lower cost–by all means, talk to those mainstream buyers and even the late adopters. Use the current market phase to guide who to get input from.

It’s great if you have the money to do some formal secondary research, but be careful about confusing formality with accuracy. For example, I know of large companies that spend huge amounts of money on Focus groups, while their Product Managers only reluctantly talk to actual potential customers directly. I find this very dangerous (you might say stupid!). Particularly with breakthrough technology, you tend to find a “garbage in, garbage out” phenomena with professionally managed focus groups. But there is that formal, professional looking report that appears very convincing in the aftermath. They can be great if constructed properly, but I have seen a lot of money spent for a very bad result. If the focus group wasn’t run properly, or the technology is very revolutionary, the results can be total garbage covered in a beautiful wrapper. I always advise that there is a good amount of old-fashion ad hoc research–talking directly to customers–to be used as a sanity check, if not the main research technique. There are exceptions, of course. If you are doing incremental product research, where the product is well-understood and the changes are evolutionary, objective research methods such as surveys may be a great way to get a quick and definitive read on the market’s reaction.

How Do You Know When You’re “Done”?
This really depends on what you are doing, but my general answer is that “you will know when you are done when you get there”. It’s important to not put an absolute time limit on the research, if it is at all practical. In some cases in the real world, this isn’t possible, of course. Sometimes you just have to go with the information that you have gathered up to a set point in time, along with your market common sense, intuition, and gut feel. With incremental product releases, waiting may not be possible or necessary. But if you can avoid it, especially if starting a new company, division, or business area, resist the temptation to “go with what you have”, if it just doesn’t’ feel right. In my experience, when you’ve “done enough” research to begin serious product planning–it’s obvious. You will feel very comfortable with regards to the clarity of the current market snapshoot, and feel you’ve really nailed the wants and needs of the market as it relates to the new product opportunity. Try not to get “antsy” and move forward because you’ve reached the original market research end date on your theoretical timetable. Resist that temptation and keep working until you are CONFIDENT that you are there, unless other factors just won’t allow it.

Summary And Conclusions
Make sure that you do sufficient market research before you begin building products; product development on a developer’s gut feel is most often a prescription for failure. There are a few high profile companies which have entered our folklore that were lucky enough to start that way, but usually this approach will quickly empty your pockets, rather than make you rich.
Include both Marketers and Technologists in the Research if at all possible. In summary:

*Marketing should take the lead on market research for new products
*Always make sure you talk to at least some customers directly and informally
*By wary of formal market research results, if not supported by an informal research “sanity check”
*Make market research a continuous company function
*Don’t stop an individual product-oriented market research project until y
ou are comfortable that you’ve got the correct answer.

There you have my thoughts on market research for product planning purposes. I’d love to hear yours as well.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

Forecasting New Technology Products

Forecasting is a thankless job. It’s a lot like being a referee or umpire in your favorite sport; the only time a game official is noticed is when they do something wrong! Similarly, a forecaster’s primary aim is too stay out of the “news”.

Make no mistake; forecasting is a very important function in any business. In the software business, your whole business plan could be riding on meeting the forecast to fund growth and product development. In a hardware business, it’s even worse–you have to worry about creating too much or too little inventory–either of which can be a huge problem for your business.

HARD IN THE BEST OF CIRCUMSTANCES

It’s bad enough when you are trying to forecast an existing, mature product, in a mature industry. This is a difficult and complex task, using well known techniques such as smoothing, trending and seasonality to fine tune the next month or annual forecast.

Early in my career, at Hewlett Packard, I spend 4 months in a special assignment dedicated solely to improving forecast accuracy. The marketing department was engaged in an ongoing argument with manufacturing over inventory levels. Not surprisingly, manufacturing wanted the inventory levels to be lean, while marketing favored a more robust number. This was because manufacturing was being graded on their costs and at that time “owned” the inventory; while Marketing was graded on revenue–and low inventory levels usually lead to missed sales opportunities.

I became a Lotus spreadsheet guru, and we used everything we could find to try to improve our forecast accuracy. Keep in mind that these were high tech products (computer printers), but successful product lines with significant historical data available. Try as we might, the best we could ever do was to get within 25% of the eventual unit sales number.

NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT ARE THE WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTERS

The main message here is that forecasting in any product in high tech industries is almost impossible, from an accuracy perspective. Forecasting accurately the performance of NEW PRODUCTS in technology markets is TRULY impossible to do accurately. With brutal competition, a tight market research budget, vague notions of market size, an early stage on the user acceptance curve, and often the reality of an unknown brand, forecasters of new technology products needs to make sure they don’t end up in substance abuse clinics. But of course, even though it’s hard– it’s still VERY important. So what’s a forecaster to do?

There are two basic methodologies that I typically utilize when attempting to forecast sales for a new technology product:

TOP DOWN FORECASTING METHOD

The first approach that I usually engage is what I like to call the “top down” method. You might also call this the “Macro” approach. This is an exercise of defining the size of your total addressable market using market research or number of potential users, and also estimating what a reasonable share will be for your product, given the various attributes of your market position. Consider everything you can in your analysis: your marketing budget, brand strength, an unbiased view of how your product stacks up vs. the competition, etc. It may be helpful to put it all in a spreadsheet, and quantify the various important attributes of your company/product vs. your competition. Be careful about assigning too much precision to these numbers; remember that garbage in equals’ garbage out. But if you go through this exercise thoughtfully, it can be very helpful in analyzing your relative market position. In this case, obtaining your top down forecast is then as easy as multiplying the share you think you can obtain, times the market size that you came up via research.

BOTTOM UP FORECASTING METHOD

After I’ve done the top down or Macro forecast, I like to use what I call a bottoms up or “Micro” approach as a sanity check. To do this, you want to gather information on what you think you can sell from individual stakeholders in the sales area: direct field sales reps, Online/Web store, dealers, international distributors, etc. It’s helpful to gather info from any channel that will be a significant contributor to sales for this new product. Usually it’s impractical to do a complete survey of everyone that may be involved in the sales effort. What’s important is to obtain a representative sample that is both broad enough and deep enough that the data you gather has some significance. At that point, you can “normalize” the data. For example, say you were able to gather data from a broad cross-section of sales points, totaling approximately 10% of the total sales infrastructure. You would then multiply the total number of units/dollars you obtained from your sales entities times 10, to reach a bottoms up forecast totaling 100%.

DO YOU HAVE CONVERGENCE?

The key to this exercise is to discover whether your two views of the market are close enough that they appear to be focusing on the same topic! If they do, you may be in pretty good shape with your forecast. If they are off by an order of magnitude, it’s probably time to reconsider some of your assumptions.

SUMMARY

So there’s my advice on how to approach the unenviable task of forecasting a brand new technology product. It’s a high risk, high return activity under the best of circumstances–and ideal conditions are seldom found in this activity in the technology space. But if you are able to construct both a top down and a bottoms up forecast, and the two numbers at least fall in the same ballpark, you’re probably on the right track.

Give it a shot yourself next time you’re faced with this forecasting daunting task. Feel free to shoot me an email with your questions, or leave a comment for discussion.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Behavioral Marketing – What’s all the Fuss About?

There’s a “new” form of online marketing that’s all the rage, and is getting a lot of press these days. Different people call it different things, including “Behavioral Targeting”, but for the purposes of this discussion we’ll call it “Behavioral Marketing”. The most interesting thing about this technique is that it real isn’t new at all.

Let’s talk about what Behavioral Marketing is, and isn’t. It’s not any great new marketing theory or technique. It’s really just another form of database or segmentation marketing. Marketers have been attempting to categorize and segment potential customers since the beginning of the free enterprise system. What’s really new and exciting about it is that it has couple age-old marketing techniques with web technology that enables the marketing segmentation to be applied more efficiently and accurately. As I stated in the headline, it’s all the rage, being used by brick and mortar companies like Best Buy in store design, and pure web companies like Yahoo, who utilizes their vast portfolio of free services to get a handle of what Internet surfers are really up to.

My personal focus is on Technology and Software Management and Marketing Techniques. Behavioral Marketing isn’t a technique specific only to the market served by PJM Consulting, since it is broadly applicable to any company marketing products or services online. But my client base of software and technology companies should have a special interest in this topic, since they tend to be early adopters of leading edge technologies, such as utilized in this technique.

BEHAVIOR, NOT APPEARANCES OR LOCATION

In the context of online activity, behavioral marketing is the technique of targeting consumers based on their behavior online, rather than by simply the content of pages they visit, or the demographic characteristics of the prospect. For example, the prospect’s surfing habits might cause them to be grouped into a category of active car shoppers, or a different category of engaged women planning a wedding in the very near future–or both. These categories are constructed using information compiled from both clickstream data and IP information. Behavioral marketing networks with thousands of participating websites are being developed, which allow marketers to build databases that characterize online surfing behaviors across a wide spectrum of websites, in near real time. Marketers using behavioral techniques can then target these consumers by serving ads tailored to the predefined segments or categories. This is an example of a classic marketing technique that is made much more practical by Internet technology. The Internet isn’t essential to the practice of behavioral marketing, but it can greatly add to its effectiveness.

HOW IT WORKS

So how does it work? Generally, you’re being tracked as you surf the net using Adware, or tracking cookies on your computers. Adware is a dirty word to a lot of people, and is often lumped in with Spyware. What’s the difference? As I’m defining it here, Adware has no “mal intent” like some Spyware, and is fully disclosed and consented to. It is used strictly to track behavior and activities online, for the purpose of categorizing the surfer into a preset category, then serving an Ad targeted to that group. Not to steal your identity, or empty your bank account (at least not without your knowledge!).

IS IT A GOOD OR A BAD THING?

So is this new Behavioral Marketing stuff a positive development? Like most things in Marketing, that’s in the eye or the beholder–and the hands of the user.

Extreme voices on the user side of the privacy discussion will object strenuously to anything that has even the slightest privacy implication, no matter how benign. It doesn’t matter whether the risk of abuse is slight or non-existent; they will toll the bell of alarm and protest vigorously. These folks are against just about any form of marketing that is proactive. There feeling is that marketers must wait for people to come to them. If their logic was followed, a great many innovative, productive technologies would never have found their way into common use. Thankfully, our free enterprise system isn’t that restrictive.

On the other side of this equation are the abusers of technology (I refuse to call them marketers), who will take any innovation and unscrupulously attempt to use it to their advantage–consequences be damned. Email Spammers are the most recent and dramatic example of this genre of fast-buck artists. One of the great innovations in communications in our time, email is perfectly suited to direct marketing, when used properly and responsibly. With proper targeting and a reasonable approach to permission, email marketing has strong benefits to both the marketer and the consumer. But the Spammers repetitively stuff our in-boxes with the same useless drivel, until this elegant technology becomes practically unusable for its intended purpose. By doing this, Spammers turn the flabbergasted public against even legitimate forms of email marketing, wasting a huge opportunity to conduct efficient commerce for us all.

WHAT’S THE VERDICT?

So what will it be with Online Behavioral Marketing? Will it be used just for good, or for evil as well? Since this form of marketing is really just getting started, it remains to be seen. But if history is a guide, there’s a good chance it may end up being both a blessing and a curse.

What’s your position on Behavioral Marketing? I’d like to hear your thoughts.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

Keyword Discovery Site

I’ve run across yet another great free resource for marketing on the web. This site is focused on Search Engine Marketing (SEM). It’s specifically targeted at finding niche keywords to use in the search engine optimization (SEO) of your website, as well as keywords to use in your CPC advertising campaigns.

What’s unique about this site is that it combines a number of important web-based resources for finding good keywords into one, easy-to-use interface. Simply go to this site, sign up for a free account, and you are then able to drop into one “basket” all keywords that you’ve found, using a variety of different methods that NicheBot has aggregated into a single interface. I find it an extremely convenient and fast way to conduct keyword discovery.

The interface contains six different tools, all accessible with a single click: Keyword Discovery, Wordtracker, Overture, Thesarus, Keyword Analysis and Google Ranking. NicheBot does a great job of providing you with key information. This includes the actual websites which appear in searches, so you can correlate your competition with other important information the site makes available for each potential keyword.

The site is called NicheBot (www.nichebot.com). Although there is nothing truly revolutionary here, it is a great productivity tool for your Search Engine Marketing efforts. I suggest you head to NicheBot and give it a test drive. Let me know what you think!

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Flattening of the Growth Curve

In every company’s history there comes a time (or two or three or four times!) when your momentum slows, and the sales curve begins to flatten. This can be one of the most trying and frustrating times for software and technology companies. It’s certainly not as difficult as the startup phase, when “crib death” is an ever present fear. And a no growth, flat revenue scenario is much preferable to declining sales combined with negative profitability that follows, which leads to a “death spiral” if no effective action is taken.

I do find this situation is often more confusing to company management than either the start up or death spiral scenarios. This is because it often occurs just after a period of fast growth and prosperity, where it seems that the company can do no wrong. As a result, senior managers are often in denial about what is happening—whereas in the startup or death spiral situations, the situation is much more obvious, usually motivating folks to take fast, decisive action.

Search for the Culprits, Blame for the Innocent

With flattening growth, it’s easy to blame things that may not be the true cause. I often here excuses and tactics such as the following:

“The marketing department just needs to put out better promotions. Fire the VP Marketing and bring in someone who will get the job done”.

“The sales force isn’t selling hard enough, they just need to close more deals. Get the VP Sales off the golf course and tell him to kick some butt, or he’ll be the next to go”.

“The channel is useless; they’re taking 30% but they aren’t pushing the products—take more deals direct”.

“We just need to charge more for our products; we’re leaving money on the table”.

“Cut the price to stimulate demand.”

“The UK distributor is fat, dumb and happy—sign two more of his competitors to motivate him and maximize sales in that country.”

Now some of these reasons may even be accurate, and some of the proposed tactics could be possibly be useful. But I have found, quite often, that things of this nature aren’t the fundamental issue, and beating up the sales force, cutting or raising prices, or messing with your channel balance may exacerbate the situation and make things worse—not better.

The Real Problem

Sometimes the answer is as simple as “All good things must come to an end.”

Growth cycles don’t last for ever, as much as every software & technology company CEO, VP marketing and VP Sales wishes it would. There is almost a natural cycle that occurs with revenue that often coincides with the life cycle of your products. Also, the economy changes, competition heats up, novel marketing programs age and are copied—which reduces their effectiveness, market segments get saturated, and customer budgets are retargeted to the “next new thing.” Stuff happens—always. The only real question is when.

So what’s a befuddled and perplexed tech company CEO to do?

Finding a Solution

Well, the first thing I recommend is to really spend some time getting to the bottom of things. Instead of shot-gunning blame that may be misplaced, or impetuously blowing up established pillars of the business—conduct a real, objective analysis of the nature of the slowdown. I don’t suggest paralysis by analysis by any means, but do take the time to gather some data, so that your actions will be based on more than knee-jerk reactions.

Past that, it’s hard to generalize on a course of action, because the proper action will depend upon what you find in your analysis. But for the sake of discussion, let’s say that while there are a few factors that you find which could be leading to slower growth, no there isn’t a “silver bullet” reason that can be “fixed” to get the revenue curve again pointed up and to the right. Below are some general ways that I’ve found may enable you to “restart growth”. I might add that many of them are most effective if you begin them prior to actual revenue flattening:

Try marketing programs you haven’t used before
Usually when you get in a period of high growth, there is a workhorse program or two that has worked well for you, and there is a tendency to “keep doing what works”. Unfortunately, even the best conceived marketing programs eventually run out of steam. One of the keys to having consistently good outbound marketing, is too be constantly testing new ideas, placing small bets, and fine-tuning them if there is enough success to continue. As I’ve said many times before, product marketing is part art, and part science—with the art portion unfortunately upfront. You need to do a little trial and error to find a good program, and then the science kicks in, using data you’ve gathered to optimize it. But the key is to be constantly testing new ideas, in good times and bad. If you wait until your growth has already slowed, you may scramble for quite a while, trying to find an answer.

Have an internal “growth” brainstorming session
Ideally you are doing this before you fall into a revenue rut. But regardless, do bring together people in your organization, to bring out the ideas they may have to give the top line a kick start. Do hold these sessions in an open, non-threatening and non-political environment. It’s important that people are able to speak freely, and not be ridiculed, if they come up with an idea that’s “too far out of the box”. That is often where strategic breakthroughs are made. And don’t just limit these sessions to executive managers. Remember, the people at the bottom of the org chart are often the ones closest to the business, and are sometimes able to more easily spot a big opportunity that the company could capitalize on.

Hire some outside help
Consultants have a very bad name in some areas—unfortunately, sometimes with good reason. But bringing in someone with deep marketing or management expertise, with a different viewpoint than the internal management team, can sometimes be the quickest way to new approaches that will turn the ship quickly. I’d recommend staying away from folks that that have a cookbook formula, have only been consultants and not operating executives, or take too much of an academic approach. Every company, market and point in time is different, and needs to be analyzed as such. But hiring the right outside consultant or firm who is creative, analytic and “been there and done that” can have a big impact. PJM Consulting has often worked as a change agent in these situations, and increasing or restarting traction is an area of specialty.

Look at entering an adjacent market
If it’s determined that your current market space is getting saturated, one of the first things to do is to look at adjacent spaces. Preferably, look somewhere that you can leverage your current marketing, distribution and brand, but also possibly where you can apply existing company technology to a different customer’s problem. The key here is don’t go to a complete green field, that looks attractive because it’s large or growing fast, but where you have no real business competing. Again, it’s best to be taking this step in anticipation of slowing growth in your current business—rather than waiting until it happens. Getting traction in new areas can take some time.

Consider M&A; to fill out your product line or distribution system
If you’ve been caught by a surprise slowdown and you need to do something quickly, a strategic acquisition can sometimes be the answer. I warn you to proceed with caution here. M&A; is fraught with danger—statistics show that most acquisitions don’t work out well. You need to think it through, proceed carefully, and don’t get overly excited
by the thrill of the deal chase. If done well, however, a strategic acquisition can be a real shortcut to entering an adjacent space, filling out your product line for an existing strong distribution system, or adding sales channels to your strong product offerings. This is another area where PJM Consulting has strong experience, and can offer assistance.

Think it through before you start shooting

There are obviously endless other potential ways to explore, when attempting to jump out of a revenue rut. I wanted to suggest a few to stimulate your thinking—and more importantly, steer you away from some “knee-jerk” reactions, that often make your situation even worse.

What have you done in the past when you need to restart growth? Post a comment below and fill us all in.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Automated Information Tracking on the Internet

I wanted to make you aware of another cool Web-based, free resource that I’ve become aware of and have started using.

It’s called PubSub, and it allows your eyes and ears to be extended greatly on the Internet. The service works somewhat like a search engine, except a “future” or “forward-looking” one.

PubSub is a service that notifies you when new content is created that matches your subscription. The core technology of PubSub is an Engine that matches new information events against stored queries such as yours, at more than three billion matches per second. This allows the PubSub service to constantly monitor millions of information events for you.

It’s very easy to use. You enter a phrase, or a set of phrases in a list box. Simply click “Start Matching Now” and you’re ready to roll. This creates the subscription on PubSub that will continuously search for the chosen phrases across a wide variety of Internet content. PubSub claims to monitor over 2o million Internet sources, including weblogs, Newsgroups and Edgar SEC filings. You can have PubSub monitor all its sources, or narrow it down to specific categories such as “Airport Delays”, “Weblog Entries” or “SEC/Edgar filings”.

PubSub creates an RSS feed containing new matches, which you can read in a browser or have constantly available in a newsreader. I have my PubSub feed linked to my personalized Google Page, which I use as my browser homepage. That way I instantly see any new matches right when I boot up in the morning.

If you think about it, this type of service could be useful monitoring information for many different reasons. You might, for example, tell PubSub to look for “New Plasma display TVs”, if you’re in the market for a TV upgrade in the near future.

You could use it for monitoring reviews and mentions of your software product. Or track the marketing moves and financial results of your competitors.

I use it for monitoring the presence of my high technology management consulting business on the Internet. It’s very useful to know how often your company is being mentioned–and more importantly what’s being said!

This is a tool whose usage is only limited by one’s imagination. How will you use it? Post a comment, or write me an email, and let me know.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

The Internet Marketing Start Page

It’s time to clue you all in about another nice resource I’ve run across on the Web. This site is called the Internet Marketing Start Page. It’s a great place to start your day, if you’re a professional Marketer, Entrepreneur, or otherwise just want to keep up with the latest tools and trends in marketing online. The Internet Marketing Start page basically is just what is says it is: a great start page, with anything and everything to do with marketing that’s available on the Internet. For anyone that doesn’t already have a favorite page, I’d recommend that you configure your browser and start your day on this page. There is so much information available, that it can actually give you a “creative push” to consider new things, rather than just being a passive resource that you refer to from time to time.

Included are entire sections on portals, search engines, marketing discussion forums, Webmaster tools, Business/Marketing/Technology News sources, Marketing & Advertising references, Industry Stats. It’s a resource with a truly rich array of great stuff for the High Tech Marketer. Give it a test drive and let me know what you think!

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Free Web Analytics

For those of you involved in Internet Marketing, you know that you just can’t get enough data. Most of you, I’m sure, are already using a web analytics package today. Certainly anyone with an ecommerce site is a very heavy user of web analytics data. There are many popular commercial packages out there, including websidestory, websense, urchin and omniture to name a few.

But even if aren’t selling directly from your site, say you have a B2B site, in a niche market with high-priced products, you should still be tracking your sites traffic with a web analytics package. It is still very important to measure your traffic, and see the effect that various online and offline marketing campaigns are having on visitors to your site. Or it may be very helpful to see what content on your site is getting the most attention. If you don’t measure what’s going on with your site, you might as well just have a paper brochure–you aren’t taking advantage of having an intelligent, electronic home for your company.

There are a number of free (advertising supported) services out there, which do a good job of tracking basic data on the visitors to your site.

I use a service called statcounter (www.statcounter.com)

It is one of the free sites I referred to earlier. I’ve been using it for a couple of years. It works great, and is very easy to use. I set it up on my entire site in a couple of hours, and was off collecting data about my website guests. If you have a modest budget or just don’t have a need for extremely detailed analytics, I suggest that you check out StatCounter.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com