Oracle is buying Sun?

Breaking News…. Oracle buys Sun!? What's wrong with this picture?

What's surprising is that a very large software company is buying a very large hardware company. You often see a hardware company buying a software company, but I can't really think of a deal that's gone the other way around. Certainly not at this level. My practice at PJM Consulting serves all kinds of technology companies--but a focus is on software. Although every situation is different, my typical advice is for software companies to stay away from hardware, if at all possible.

This news is very interesting on several levels:

Involvement of two high profile, strong personalities in the technology business
I'm talking about Larry Ellison and Scott McNealy. Of course, MCNealy no longer actively runs Sun, but he is still Chairman and a power to be dealt with. He was allegedly the force behind the killing of the potential deal with IBM. Apparently Larry and Scott are old buddies, so maybe there won't be a problem. But these are two very strong-minded, controversial and sometimes outrageous leaders. Even though they are long time friends, they have never before played together so closely in the same sandbox. It wouldn't be shocking to see a few disagreements, and some public drama as a result.

Combining the Largest Revenue Database Product with the Largest in Unit Market Share
This aspect of the deal will not get as much attention as some of the others. But Oracle is the 500 lb Gorilla at the top end of the market, and the open source MYSQL is the most popular database choice at the low end, particularly in website development. This aspect likely won't demand anti-trust scrutiny because they don't really compete directly. But potential marketplace competition from MYSQL going up market, and Oracle bringing out lower cost solutions, is eliminated by this deal.

Software Company buying a Hardware Company
As I stated above, this is highly unusual, especially for companies of this size. Most established software companies have very high margins, and wouldn't want to "pollute" their earnings with the lower margin, often commoditized hardware revenue. I can't think of another comparable deal, looking back even into the distant past. The business models are pretty different. In hardware companies manufacturing efficiency and inventory control are major factors in business success; in most software businesses these are inconsequential factors to success. Hardware businesses tend to be more capital-intensive, while software businesses are very R&D intensive. I could go on, but suffice it to say that the management of these businesses includes different functional skill sets. Why is Ellison interested in Sun? Just for the Java and the Solaris OS software, or is he really going to continue with the hardware business as well? Even though in some ways, Sun was a bargain at the price of just under $6B net. But if he's just interested in the software pieces of Sun, the price looks pretty steep--Sun's direct revenue from Java and Solaris is a pretty minimal portion of its total revenue. Ellison had a flirtation with hardware years ago with the Network Computer concept--could he really still be itching to become a fully integrated systems company?

What will Oracle Do With Sun's Software?
To me, this is by far the most intriguing question raised by the deal. Solaris is a nice OS, and has a good installed base. But it's never really had the same impact in the market since open source Linux came around. Java is pervasive in the computing arena, and in embedded systems as well. It has a huge impact on the Internet. It's literally everywhere. But after trying to charge big money for Java in the early days, Sun decided to give it away. I was intimately involved in the embedded Java market in those early days. Sun initially looked like they had created a technology that could allow them to challenge Microsoft for computing dominance. I believe Microsoft was very worried at the time. But to say that Sun fumbled the ball would be way too kind. Frankly, their effort to commercialize Java was like something out of the Keystone Cops. I could detail their myriad missteps. To summarize, the biggest problem was that they were a hardware company attempting to commercialize a software product, which usually doesn't work very well. Sun appeared not to have a clue as to what they were doing. Finally, they quit trying to directly make money at Java; they put it into open source and basically decided to give away the technology to anyone who wanted to use it. It looked to me like a way to spite Microsoft, more than anything.

What Happens to Java?
So where does that leave Oracle once they close the deal and own Java? What is their plan to leverage Java in the marketplace? Will they start trying to charge for it somehow? I think this is doubtful; there's probably no going back on that decision at this point. I'm sure that Mr. Ellison and his team have something in mind--but I can't imagine what it is. They've been very savvy at making some acquisitions that haven't looked all that complementary, that have worked out well. So I wouldn't bet against them. But I can help wonder if they haven't stretched a bit too far in their minds to find synergy in this one. It reminds me a bit of Ebay's very expensive purchase of Skype, which is now being unraveled because it just didn't create any synergy. We shall see what happens--it should be interesting to watch this unfold.

SUMMARY
The prospective Sun-Oracle deal is one of the more interesting we've seen for a while. There shouldn't be any major anti-trust issues with this deal, and it doesn't appear that a higher bidder is likely to emerge. Watching the organizational integration (and possible divestment), as well as the interaction of the outsized personalities, should be entertaining at the very least. But most of all look for what Ellison does with Java--that's where the real intrigue lays. Post a comment to give me your view of this deal.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Which Online Advertising Platforms Should You Include in Your Marketing Mix?

I often write about online marketing, as many of my regular readers know. A frequent topic of mine is Pay-Per-Click (PPC) advertising, also known as Cost-Per-Click (CPC). Occasionally, people will refer to this marketing vehicle as Search Engine Advertising. What you're hearing this called more and more is "Google Adwords".

HAS GOOGLE ADWORDS "BECOME" ONLINE ADVERTISING?

Of course, its kind of like asking for a "Coke" when you want a soft drink, or "Scotch Tape" when you are seeking sticky-backed tape. It's the age old story of a brand DEFINING the category itself, and usually happens when a product becomes dominant in a market segment.

The conventional wisdom these days is that Google has basically won the Online Search Engine-based advertising wars, so don't even bother with any of the other advertising platforms out there. This topic is the very reason for Microsoft's recent offer to buy Yahoo for a gazillion dollars; they are motivated to do this because Google is so far ahead that they don't appear able to catch up on their own. This raises the issue of two also-rans in a market, combining to take on the market leader--which usually ends in disaster--but we'll leave that for another discussion…

Back to the main question, should you focus your online advertising energy and budget strictly on Google Adwords, or broaden your campaign to other platforms? I have an opinion, of course, and I'd like to illustrate that opinion with my own pragmatic advertising experience, as well as some more theoretical marketing theory which has served me well across a variety of markets. Let's start with the theory, using an experience from my past to illustrate my viewpoint.

MARKET NICHES: HIT'EM WHERE THEY AIN'T

As markets develop, conventional wisdom usually instructs you to "get on the bandwagon" of the market leader, and don't waste your time "where the action isn't". Back in the 90s when I was running a systems & network management software business, Novell Netware had the overwhelming share of the Network Operating Systems business--roughly a 70% share. As a result, most of the companies in our general space focused on making their add-on products compatible with the Novell platform. They ignored two other competitors: Microsoft LAN Manager and Banyan VINES. There were almost no add-on systems management products available for these two platforms. We ported our applications to these two platforms, with excellent payback. Not only were we able to make easy sales to the customers of these two NOS vendors due to lack of competition, these secondary platform vendors supported our efforts to a much greater degree than Novell, where we were one of many. In addition, it turned out that while Banyan (and too a lesser extent LAN Manager) had much higher market shares in the coveted Fortune 1000 market than they did the market as a whole. Many large companies also had mixed networks containing two or more of these NOS platforms--we had a major strategic advantage in these large accounts, due to our cross platform support. The first lesson here is that sometimes it really pays to segment a market a bit differently. In some cases, in segments important to you, the market leader isn't nearly as dominant as overall market share data would lead you to believe. The second take-away is that smaller market segments are often DRAMATICALLY less competitive, allowing you to efficiently grow revenue without huge marketing outlays to "get above the noise".

MY OWN EXPERIENCE WITH THE MAJOR ONLINE ADVERTISING PLATFORMS

I run PPC advertising campaigns for several of my clients. Let me make something clear right away--there is no comparison between these three advertising platforms. Google Adwords is the clear winner, hands down. It's not close. Adwords is both by far the most robust and easiest to use, which is quite a statement. Adwords is a great piece of software, which Google is constantly evolving and improving. You can do almost everything you want and there is excellent online help if you do have a question. If you ever really do need a live person, help is available, even if you are spending a modest amount on advertising with Google. It is a pleasure to work in Adwords. Plus the fact is that by far the most volume of searches is available on this platform.

Yahoo Search Marketing (formerly Overture) comes in second place. This is the original search advertising platform. It's not nearly as robust as Adwords, but the recent major upgrade at least brought the software into the modern ages--it was pretty stagnant for a very long time, allowing Google to surge into a commanding lead. The basics are covered, and it's pretty intuitive--although if you are used to working in Adwords, the subtle differences can drive you a bit crazy. And there are a few things that are simple to do online in Adwords, that you have to call and request over the phone to make happen in Yahoo's platform--but at least they are very nice about it.

And then there is Microsoft AdCenter. What can I say about Microsoft; it is the typically excruciating experience dealing with them. They dominate most markets they are in, and have that arrogant way of dealing with you that only a monopolist has. When you have 90% of the OS or word processing market, you can get away with lousy support, vendor-centric policies and non-intuitive software. But they are a distant third in this market, and they aren't gaining on anyone. So these weaknesses stick out like a sore thumb. This is the newest platform. The software isn't all that hard to use, but in Microsoft fashion they have created some of their own conventions in opposition to market terminology, and the application doesn't always behave in a way you would expect. Add in the unbelievable support mentality, not to mention the fact that they are a distant 3rd in traffic, and you realize why they are last among the major platforms. As an example of their attitude, when I decided to look at Microsoft's offering, I wanted to import my Adwords campaigns into Adcenter to save a BUNCH of time, which the Help function stated that I could do. Makes a lot of sense for a new user, right? Well, I couldn't figure out how to do it in the software, so I called Adcenter support to ask how. I was told that I needed to be spending at least $11,000/month to have access to that feature! There's a classic catch 20--not allowed to import all your campaigns into a platform (which will enable you to spend money in that platform), until you're spending over $100,000/year. Brilliant market penetration strategy! Whoever is making decisions at Microsoft has no idea how to compete--which I guess isn't surprising for a monopolist. No wonder they are trying to buy Yahoo….

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Adwords is clearly the best platform, so why bother with the other two? Remember the discussion about niche markets above. Although Adwords is by far the best, as a result, it's also the most fiercely competitive of the three--meaning costs are high and margins are sometimes lower. It really varies by market segment, but in some segments, Yahoo Search Marketing and Microsoft Adcenter are neglected, leaving excellent bargains on important keywords. I am currently running a campaign on Adcenter for a client in a very niche, technical market, which isn't supposed to be well suited for MSN search traffic. This campaign is doing VERY well. So the moral of this story is don't pick one--use all three, as long as you're making money on each of them. This is the beauty of PPC marketing, after all. It is quite easy to test to see if it will work for you, and objectively track your results.

That's my take on the three major search marketing platforms--I'd love to hear yours. Post a comment so everyone can benefit from your own experience.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/