Competing with Entrenched Software & Technology Industry Giants

I was reading an article in the business section of our local newspaper recently about a new Search Engine name CUIL (pronounced Cool). I already knew about CUIL, because I had noticed that it had recently indexed the PJM Consulting website. One of their claimed differentiating factors is that they've their search index is twice as large as Google's is. In addition, they believe that they have improved the ranking algorithms, and they also present the results in a different way. The results offer fewer results per page, but more comprehensive information on each site, and often include a photo or other graphic. The premise of the article was that it may have a chance to be a real competitor vs. Google, or at least Yahoo and Microsoft, for market share in the huge search business. The founders have impressive pedigrees and come from Google on the technical side.

The article gives credence to the possibility of CUIL being a potentially serious competitor to Google, Yahoo and MS, while pointing out that quite a few companies have attempted to enter this fray, creating barely a blip in search engine market share to date.

I've taken a quick peek at CUIL--the presentation is definitely different and may be superior for some tastes. But at least at this early stage, in my quick look I wasn't terribly impressed with the relevancy of the search results. No matter how you present the data, the relevancy of the results is paramount in search. I'll be sticking with Google for now, but will keep an eye on CUIL to see how it develops over time.

Will CUIL succeed? It's of course way too early to tell. They're taking on what is arguably the most powerful technology company in the world today, attempting to compete with them in their core area of strength. So you can't say that the odds of success are high, which they rarely are for any startup. But this IS the technology business, so you've got to give them at least a puncher's chance. Like it usually is, the key will likely be how well they execute.

But execution aside, what's the best way to go about competing in the software and technology industries today? Should you just steer clear of the elephants of the industry? Many believe this is prudent, but I think it is not always necessary. After all, it wasn't so very long ago that is was nearly impossible to get a venture capitalist to fund a company that was perceived to compete in a category with Microsoft (which could be viewed as MOST categories of the software business). Yet a short time later, Microsoft is considered in many ways a dinosaur, one that is quite beatable (don't get the impression that I'm writing MS off--I'm not. Redmond may yet rise to dominate again).

If it isn't insane to compete with the giants, what are some best strategic practices that an early stage tech company can adopt to give it the best chance to survive and thrive, when entering market categories with large, entrenched competitors?. Let's take a look at a few ideas:

Make Sure that you can Differentiate - This would seem obvious for any business, but when you are going up against a huge company with a good brand--well, don't even try it without significant differentiating factors. They don't need to be product related, necessarily--it could be free and outstanding support, better price points, exceptional ease-of-use, or many other things. But don't kid yourself--you will need REAL differentiation.

Pick a Niche, any Niche--at least to start - It is important to pick a small enough niche so that you can provide that true differentiation discussed above. Your investors may want you to attack a huge market, but if you don't have that influence pushing you in that direction, pick a small area that you can have a higher chance of dominating when you're new. If you are successful in your initial niche, you can then broaden out into adjacent segments. Down the road, maybe you take on the giant "head-on"; but starting out is NOT the time for this.

Raise more money than you think you will need - Every once in a while a new company will "hit on all cylinders" from the very beginning. But in my consulting practice at PJM Consulting, I rarely see this. In fact, a good part of my practice is helping companies "pick up the pieces" after their initial business plan or execution has gone awry. No one likes to give up more equity than they need to, but things usually take longer to start working than you initially project. There are usually too many things that you don't know, until you really get into the marketplace. Plus, it's generally easier (and cheaper!) to raise a bit more money at first, than it is after that first misstep. A little extra funding in the bank can be a good insurance policy against a capital crisis early on.

DON'T try to be like them - A common mistake that I often see early stage companies make is trying to "be like the giant competitor". Sometimes this comes from an inferiority complex, and sometimes because the founders come from one of the giant companies themselves. The last thing you want to do is create a big company bureaucracy. In most ways, you want to operate VERY DIFFERENTLY from you huge, slow-moving competitor. Resist the urge to create huge amounts of process before your company size dictates it as necessary. Be very careful about hiring away senior executives from you giant competitors, unless you are certain that they also have successfully operated in an early stage company before. Stay as fast and nimble for as long as you can--that is a primary advantage at this stage of a company's development.

Recognize the giant's execution weaknesses and beat them there - Analyze the large competitor's business, and try to create your differentiation where they are weakest. It could be faster customer service, better channel relations, better ease-of-use, etc. If you concentrate your differentiation where they are doing the poorest job, it will accentuate the difference to the marketplace, and you will have a better chance of your advantage being recognized.

Focus, Focus, and Focus - This advice can be viewed as the culmination of the points above. Make sure that you don't try to do any more than you can do EXCEPTIONALLY WELL at this stage. You can always expand your focus later. Remember, there is a good chance we would all be speaking German, if Hitler hadn't prematurely opened up a second front with Russia in World War II. The tech landscape is littered with companies that followed an analogous strategy, with similar disastrous results (Novell and Netscape are two former high-flyers that immediately come to mind).

SUMMARY

As an early stage company entering a market where a major company or two are the known leaders, make sure that you don't "bite off more than you can chew". You can always expand your focus after initial success. Contracting your focus is usually quite a bit more painful, and many companies don't make it through that transition. That's my advice on how to attack a large, entrenched competitor. As usual, I'd be interested in seeing your comments.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com
pm@pjmconsult.com

The End of Customer Service

No one answers the telephone anymore.

At least, technology companies in the US surely don't. With big companies, you are either presented with an endless phone tree--"press 1 for a company directory"--or the newest innovation in communications technology: the cheerful "automated voice attendant". In many cases these attendants, and several other "innovative" service options, can lead to a great deal of frustration for customers and prospects.

As a consumer and business buyer I've found this frustrating, not to mention an incredible productivity sink. As a High Tech industry executive and consultant with a strong marketing background, I find this practice curious at best--and insane at worst!

Think about it--how many BILLIONS of dollars companies spend trying to get the attention of potential new customers--most of who are going to need to contact the company at some point. Yet it seems that once we've got their interest, or God forbid, they've signed up as an actual customer--we are doing everything possible to keep them away. Doesn't anyone remember the old marketing adage about current customers being your best source of additional business? Management guru Peter Drucker once said "The purpose of business is not to make a sale, but to make and keep a customer." Apparently not many people agree with this, or have forgotten it, because "modern" customer service practices are doing there best to drive these folks away. Let's examine some of the new customer service approaches:

OUTSOURCED CALL CENTERS IN OTHER COUNTRIES

This may be everyone consumer's favorite new "pet peeve"--calling an American company based in Chicago, or Iowa or San Jose--only to be connected to some call center somewhere in India. Often this leads to a very, very frustrating experience. Companies are going this route for support as an expense driven decision--to obtain cheaper labor. But the reps on the end of the line are often poorly trained, probably aren't employees of the company that you are calling, and often don't speak English with an accent that is easy to understand for most Americans. Are there good reps who give great service available in these call centers? Certainly, I have spoken to more than a few. But compared to the "good old days" of local support, the average caller experience has degraded significantly. Add this to the initial frustration that the caller who is dialing has because of a problem with his or her new $1200 PC--and you don't get a prescription for a happy customer.

PHONE TREES

This one has been around a while, but the increasing complexity of the tree, and well as the difficulty of exiting it to get to a live person, has continually made the situation worse. You can literally spend 5-10 minutes just navigating the phone tree these days. Oftentimes, callers just give up--which appears to be what companies want. I'll discuss below why companies shouldn't.

AUTOMATED ATTENDANTS

As I discussed above, this is one of the more recent scourges of the besieged customer with a problem. Ironically, Automated Voice Attendants have been made possible by a really nice leap forward in voice recognition technology. And there is no doubt that these products have come a very long way from the days in which they were first implemented. But talking to a machine is at this point still inherently inferior to speaking with a real human. I endorse the use of these Automated Attendants, but they should be used judiciously. I would still utilize them only at the very beginning of calls, and not require them to take a customer too far down the line of getting their problem addressed. Also, please make it easy to get away from them to a live human. With the high market share of some of the Automated Attendant companies, I am having far too many conversations with the same perky, Stepford Wife-ish-sounding artificial female voice. It's getting a bit creepy. While we're at it, let's talk about my biggest customer support pet peeve. With all of the sophisticated software available today, why is it that I have to give my account number and god knows what else to this robot lady, and then repeat all of the same information to the first live person that I speak with, as well as everyone that they transfer my call to? I understand security concerns, but geez! Hasn't anyone heard of data sharing and company firewalls?

"INTERNET COMPANIES"

The advent of the Internet has allowed for the creation of the ultimate small company: one man or woman, behind an Internet site. These companies invariably list no contact phone number or physical address. You can only email them for support, or if you're really lucky, IM them. Unfortunately, potential customers figured out that this is likely a one man operation long ago. They will be reluctant to buy your product as a result, because they don't believe you are "for real", or at least they won't be able to get good support. If you have the capability of offering real support, I urge you not to present your company in the image of one of these "Internet companies". If you do, it will cost you business.

FEE-ONLY TECH SUPPPORT

I won't deny that is some cases tech support fees are justifiable, and necessary. Even for consumer tech products. But in most cases tech support, and least at some level and for some period of time, really needs to be bundled into the base product offering. This trend came about with the intention of making tech support a "profit center". While I believe that tech support can drive profits, in many cases it shouldn't be done by attempting to extract additional money from customers (especially upfront or on the initial call) for the right to call in to get product issues fixed. There is a standard of care that most customers believe is fair: Help them get the product installed, up and running. Take care of any bugs or product defects. If you don't meet this standard, you will likely pay for it yourself--in reduced customer satisfaction and loyalty.

I want to emphasize that I am not a racist, market protectionist, political isolationist or technophobe. I have nothing against a man or woman working in a call center India, doing their best to do their job. I'm also a tech guy, and certainly love the idea of using technology to increase labor force productivity. But as a marketer, above all else, I believe in the old axiom: THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS KING. Customer service today is not treating the customer as King, but like the lowest creature on the food chain. It's possible that we are just undergoing a period of "growing pains", implementation issues, and the new customer service methods discussed here will be the way to go in the long run. Maybe technology maturity and some additional training for the folks in those faraway call centers will correct the current painful situation.

BIG OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE

But my guess is that those corrective measures are a long way off. In the meantime, there is a big opportunity for savvy software and tech companies to use this "gap" that has occurred in most company's customer service, to gain a strategic advantage in their market segment.

Unfortunately, in my Software and High Tech Practice at PJM Consulting, I find that customer service operations are usually an afterthought to senior management--especially in early stage companies. It's understandable, since it doesn't appear to be part of the strategic core that will mean the difference between success and failure for a young company. But in today's world, used properly, customer and tech support can indeed be a strategic weapon.

Not only can good support cement the relationship with the customer and build long term loyalty, but don't forget that you've got a customer on the line! Remember the old adage I mentioned above about your current customers being the best place for incremental business? Once you've satisfied the caller's concerns, you have an opportunity to educate them about new offerings, present them with a special offer, etc. The possibilities are nearly endless to profit from this customer interaction. This interaction by the way REQUIRED NO INCREMENTAL MARKETING EXPENSES TO INITIATE. Companies don't realize the opportunity that they are leaving on the table, both to increase customer loyalty, and sell incremental offers to existing customers.

DIFFERENTIATION FROM COMMODITIES

Let's talk about a specific example: HP & Dell in the PC business. I'm an old HP alumnus, and until recently, a long time Dell customer. Over a long period of time, customer support, specifically technical support-- has gone from a major strength, to a nightmare for customers of both companies. At various stages of the customer ownership lifecycle, both of these companies throw every obstacle I've discussed in this article at you--Endless phone trees, automated voice attendants, email-only or IM-only tech support, and clueless representatives in foriegn call centers. PCs are as close to a commodity as anything in the High Tech business these days. These two market leaders, along with their competitors, are pretty much slugging it out on price (and brand, which means less and less in a standards-driven market like PCs). This is certainly not the way to achieve high gross margins, let alone customer loyalty.

Personally, I'd pay 10-15% more to buy a computer from a company who guaranteed good, local tech support. I run my business on my PC; when a problem occurs that I can't fix on my own, it is often excruciatingly painful. I'm sure that these companies don't believe that I, or many others, would pay more. But if a PC company put forth a well-developed marketing message touting their emphasis on technical support and customer service--and stuck with it--they would obtain a customer for life. Now, I may not have been willing to pay such a premium 10-15 years ago, before real customer service "ended". I may have gone for the lowest price. But with personal service and support nearly gone the way of the Dodo bird (become extinct), things are different. Since good, personalized tech support has become a scarce commodity--it is therefore an opportunity that some smart company can exploit.

SUMMARY

There's a big opportunity out there for smart technology companies to go against the current trends in customer service and tech support. Make it easy for people to reach you, using whatever method they prefer. I'm suggesting short phone trees, live operators, and an adequate number of representatives to eliminate long waits. Focusing completely on expense control or technology solutions, not personal service, is a mistake for tech companies. Savvy, "forward-thinking" software and tech companies can increase market share and customer loyalty with an "old school" approach--personalized customer service and support.

That's what I have to say about the state of customer and tech support today--what's your opinion? Post a comment if you'd like to discuss this further.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

Negotiating and Working with Large Technology OEM Partners

The Holy Grail for many software and technology companies, especially the early stage type, is the big deal. Everyone is looking for the big deal, the one that will fund the company's early activities, provide market credibility and momentum in the marketplace. Of course, if it goes well, there can be nothing better. Many times the big deal takes the form of an OEM partnership with a much larger company. But often when these deals do happen, they end up fitting in the category of "be careful what you wish for".

TARGET YOUR OEM PARTNERS CAREFULLY
This is where it all starts, good or bad. It's important to pick compatible partners. Companies looking for large OEM partners are often blinded by the potential of what the OEM can do FOR their business. They often fail to pay any attention at all to what the OEM might do TO their business!

Can the partner cause severe channel conflict? Will they tie the small company up in endless meetings, procedures and negotiations? Do they have a corporate structure and culture so foreign to your way of doing business, where you end up pulling your hair out from frustration--unable to accomplish even the most simple business objective without moving mountains? Sometimes with large companies, its difficult even figure out who you need to speak with--let alone get a prompt, unambiguous answer.

Get to know your partners well before you sign a deal. It's tempting to rush in before "they change their mind", but the actual relationship is critical to potential success. It's like dating before a marriage--no matter how attractive the partner is, you need to make sure you can live with them later on.


NEGOTIATE FROM STRENGTH
I don't like to do deals with people that are sure they have the upper hand. If they think they can push you around--they almost certainly will. Usually one partner needs the other to a greater extent, but you want to try to avoid dealing with partners where you have no leverage at all. It generally doesn’t' turn out well. Make sure that you negotiate a deal that you can live with. Above all, you need to have a "line in the sand" that you won't cross--and be prepared to walk away if the negotiations cross that line.

This can be a painful and difficult thing to do when you are seeing big "dollar signs" in your eyes--and fear if you stay strong, you might blow the deal. But remember, you have something that the other side wants as well--or they wouldn't be talking to you. If you don't know what your minimum successful deal looks like, and you aren't prepared to walk, you may sign a deal that you will regret. Not to mention tying up your time and resources, which might have been used working with a more compatible partner.


WORK ON EVEN TERMS
Once you've negotiated a deal that you can live with (and hopefully prosper with!), it's time to get to work with your partner. Try to keep things as fair and even as possible in the relationship. Of course, it's important to be accommodating to your partner, and respect the differences in operational procedures. Big OEMs will usually move slower than you, be more process-oriented and structured, and include more people in the relationship. All of this is fine, but it needs to be tempered so that the larger partner doesn't "swallow all of you available resources whole". It can easily happen if you don't guard against it. They have more resources than you (but will always think they are busier!) as well as more process-driven requirements that need to be met. But don't be afraid to draw the line at a reasonable point, and remind them that you have fewer people and resources available. Suggest a phone meeting instead of flying three people across the country--ask that they come to your place, rather than always trekking to their headquarters. Propose that one of there folks spearhead writing that joint position paper, instead of some scarce resource in your company--you get the picture. Sometimes larger companies will smother you without even knowing they are doing it--don't be afraid to remind them that you need to do business a little differently.

KNOW WHEN TO SAY "NO"
If you've tried everything you know, politely, to keep the relationship equitable and reasonable--but it just isn't--don't be afraid to say NO. I meet many smaller company executives in my consulting practice whojust don't feel they can do this with a larger partner. They'll talk tough in internal meetings, but when back in discussions with the partner, the tough talk turns to submission. They just feel like the partner is too important to their business to risk ever offending them in any way. That attitude is a prescription for servitude for your company. I'm not suggesting being unpleasant; in fact, when standing up to a larger partner, it's critical to be calm, polite and non-defensive. But by all means be firm in delivering the message of what your business can, cannot--and won't'--do. If you don't, what could be a profitable relationship can turn very sour.


HAVE REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
The last point I'd like to convey is that it's important to have reasonable expectations in partnering with large OEMs. Many companies go into these deals believing they will be "company-makers". In my experience, this rarely happens. Understand what the OEM can do for you, and build your business model around the most conservative projections of their performance that's possible.

Companies usually turn to OEM products from partners to fill niches that they don't fully understand, or don't feel would pay back--if they invested in developing it themselves. It is very rare for products licensed or resold from partners to get anywhere near the push that internally-developed products do. Be realistic about this, and you won't be disappointed. If revenue exceeds your conservative expectations, you'll be overjoyed.


SUMMARY
That's my condensed advice on working with the big software and technology OEMs of the world. This is a common activity for many companies--what's been your own experience? Post a comment and let me know your own view.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Channel Pricing Strategy for Software and Hardware Products

Pricing software products is always a difficult exercise. With high product development costs, but near zero costs of goods sold, there are many different strategies that people have followed successfully (and not so successfully!) over time. Pricing hardware products is a bit simpler because there is generally a significant cost of goods sold that acts as a governor on pricing behavior. But even with hardware, technology markets are dynamic and fast moving. And it's a complex enough topic when all sales are going direct--once you bring channels into the picture, it only gets worse.

CHANNEL CONFLICT
The biggest concern most companies have when pricing for multiple channels is channel conflict. I have seen many companies who actually AVOID selling through channels for fear of the pricing implications it brings. They are afraid of a channel undercutting their direct sales force in price, and channel conflict in general, which arises as a result of different prices being presented to customers from representatives of different channels. But this doesn’t have to be so; with a savvy understanding of the implications of pricing actions. This comes from both experience, and "paying attention to what actually HAPPENS in the marketplace. If you price properly and run your channel programs well, you can sell successfully via multiple channels--with these channels living in relative harmony.

VALUE-BASE CHANNEL PRICING
I've written about value-based pricing before, in the context of the perceived value of a product, as seen by the end-user, being the guidepost for pricing actions. A similar concept exists for channel discounts. Rather than taking a simplistic approach and give the greatest discount to the channel players that move the most product ( a destructive strategy--more on that later), it's important to measure how much "value" a particular channel provides both you and your end-user customers. Look at things like 24/7 support, inventory & product availability, technical expertise, credit services, and the like. In this case, it is helpful to let the cost of delivery of each of these attributes be your guide to the value they provide.

VALUE-BASED CHANNEL DISCOUNT STRUCTURE
For example, you may figure that the cost of a VAR providing 24/7 support to end users (meaning YOUR company doesn't have to) is equal to 5% of the list price of the product. And the inventory held by a retailer (again, meaning YOUR company doesn't have to hold it, at a cost) is equal to 2% of the list price. And so on and so forth. Using this value-based method, you can calculate the actual costs borne by your partners in delivering marketplace value, and use this as a guidepost in building your channel discount schedules for various types of channel partners. This value-based channel pricing approach is not well-known, and seldom considered; most people seem to figure the only value worth extra discount is sales volume. If you use a value pricing approach, you actually have a chance to build a multi-channel strategy that "clicks on all cylinders" by providing discount structures that are equitable based upon cost and value associated with each channel.



LIMIT VOLUME DISCOUNTS
If you choose the "more volume=greater discount approach, your multi-channel strategy is a house of cards which will soon collapse around you. One channel will quickly grow to dominate, and the other channel types will soon quit selling on your behalf, and wither away.


THE GOAL IS TO MAXIMIZE SALES THROUGH ALL CHANNELS
Again, the key is to not let one channel dominate. Ideally, you would like all channels to be presenting prices to the end customer that are equal. In reality, that pretty much can't happen without price fixing (which some folks may be able to get away with, but that's another story….). But you should strive as much as possible to have end user pricing equity for all channels. But this is where the counter-intuitive part of this discussion comes in to play. Most people pricing high tech products have a tendency to price based upon the volume of product a particular channel player can move. It seems logical--why wouldn't you want to incent and reward a partner with better margins if they are selling more products?

While this appears logical, it is actually penny-wise and pound-foolish. In fact, it is usually catastrophic to your plans to maximize sales through multiple channels. Let's look at a simple case of how this often "breaks" a multi-channel strategy for a common case: a vendor selling through both retailers and VARs.

A SIMPLE EXAMPLE
Retailers provide a vendor with a point of purchase holding inventory, where their customers can go to immediately purchase a product. VARs often don't hold inventory, but provide other services important to the vendor and some customers, such as tech support, training and integration with other software and hardware products. Each may have an important role to play in the overall strategy to maximize vendor sales.

But the retailer will usually be a high volume partner, with the VAR less likely to be a volume outlet (although the VAR CHANNEL, in total, may hold great promise to move volume). If you structure your pricing by volume, the retailer will get better discounts. Because individual VARs generally have higher costs spread over lower product volumes, they actually need HIGHER discounts to stay even in pricing potential to the Retailer. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that retailers tend to be volume-oriented, usually accepting a relatively small, fixed margin on everything they sell. If you provide discounts based upon the volume that a partner moves, what will happen is inevitable: The retailer will take over your channel business, because the VARs will be "squeezed out" by the relatively low prices charged by the retailer. They won't be able to make a profit on your products, so they will ignore the business, and you will lose the opportunity to realize significant sales through the large (in aggregate) VAR channel, especially those customers that desire the service and support they supply. I am oversimplifying this situation, of course, because VARs are more interested in the service revenue that a product can pull, than they are in product margins. But I have seen this scenario play out many times and kill product sales through VARs channel that might otherwise generate health sales through that channel. This can be a heavy penalty for naïve technology product managers who are charged with pricing their products and moving them through multiple channels, but who don't fully realize the consequences of their actions.

SUMMARY
Pricing seems pretty simple on the surface--when channels are involved, it's anything but. It's important to fully think through the downstream effects of your pricing policies when multiple distribution channel are involved. Let me know if you have questions, or you own channel pricing stories that you'd like to share.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

Forecasting New Technology Products

Forecasting is a thankless job. It's a lot like being a referee or umpire in your favorite sport; the only time a game official is noticed is when they do something wrong! Similarly, a forecaster's primary aim is too stay out of the "news".

Make no mistake; forecasting is a very important function in any business. In the software business, your whole business plan could be riding on meeting the forecast to fund growth and product development. In a hardware business, it's even worse--you have to worry about creating too much or too little inventory--either of which can be a huge problem for your business.

HARD IN THE BEST OF CIRCUMSTANCES

It's bad enough when you are trying to forecast an existing, mature product, in a mature industry. This is a difficult and complex task, using well known techniques such as smoothing, trending and seasonality to fine tune the next month or annual forecast.

Early in my career, at Hewlett Packard, I spend 4 months in a special assignment dedicated solely to improving forecast accuracy. The marketing department was engaged in an ongoing argument with manufacturing over inventory levels. Not surprisingly, manufacturing wanted the inventory levels to be lean, while marketing favored a more robust number. This was because manufacturing was being graded on their costs and at that time "owned" the inventory; while Marketing was graded on revenue--and low inventory levels usually lead to missed sales opportunities.

I became a Lotus spreadsheet guru, and we used everything we could find to try to improve our forecast accuracy. Keep in mind that these were high tech products (computer printers), but successful product lines with significant historical data available. Try as we might, the best we could ever do was to get within 25% of the eventual unit sales number.

NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT ARE THE WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR FORECASTERS

The main message here is that forecasting in any product in high tech industries is almost impossible, from an accuracy perspective. Forecasting accurately the performance of NEW PRODUCTS in technology markets is TRULY impossible to do accurately. With brutal competition, a tight market research budget, vague notions of market size, an early stage on the user acceptance curve, and often the reality of an unknown brand, forecasters of new technology products needs to make sure they don't end up in substance abuse clinics. But of course, even though it's hard-- it's still VERY important. So what's a forecaster to do?

There are two basic methodologies that I typically utilize when attempting to forecast sales for a new technology product:


TOP DOWN FORECASTING METHOD

The first approach that I usually engage is what I like to call the "top down" method. You might also call this the "Macro" approach. This is an exercise of defining the size of your total addressable market using market research or number of potential users, and also estimating what a reasonable share will be for your product, given the various attributes of your market position. Consider everything you can in your analysis: your marketing budget, brand strength, an unbiased view of how your product stacks up vs. the competition, etc. It may be helpful to put it all in a spreadsheet, and quantify the various important attributes of your company/product vs. your competition. Be careful about assigning too much precision to these numbers; remember that garbage in equals' garbage out. But if you go through this exercise thoughtfully, it can be very helpful in analyzing your relative market position. In this case, obtaining your top down forecast is then as easy as multiplying the share you think you can obtain, times the market size that you came up via research.


BOTTOM UP FORECASTING METHOD

After I've done the top down or Macro forecast, I like to use what I call a bottoms up or "Micro" approach as a sanity check. To do this, you want to gather information on what you think you can sell from individual stakeholders in the sales area: direct field sales reps, Online/Web store, dealers, international distributors, etc. It's helpful to gather info from any channel that will be a significant contributor to sales for this new product. Usually it's impractical to do a complete survey of everyone that may be involved in the sales effort. What's important is to obtain a representative sample that is both broad enough and deep enough that the data you gather has some significance. At that point, you can "normalize" the data. For example, say you were able to gather data from a broad cross-section of sales points, totaling approximately 10% of the total sales infrastructure. You would then multiply the total number of units/dollars you obtained from your sales entities times 10, to reach a bottoms up forecast totaling 100%.

DO YOU HAVE CONVERGENCE?

The key to this exercise is to discover whether your two views of the market are close enough that they appear to be focusing on the same topic! If they do, you may be in pretty good shape with your forecast. If they are off by an order of magnitude, it's probably time to reconsider some of your assumptions.


SUMMARY

So there's my advice on how to approach the unenviable task of forecasting a brand new technology product. It's a high risk, high return activity under the best of circumstances--and ideal conditions are seldom found in this activity in the technology space. But if you are able to construct both a top down and a bottoms up forecast, and the two numbers at least fall in the same ballpark, you're probably on the right track.

Give it a shot yourself next time you're faced with this forecasting daunting task. Feel free to shoot me an email with your questions, or leave a comment for discussion.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

System Integration vs. Product Development

I've recently engaged on assignments with two new clients. Both of them have businesses selling to large, blue chip customers. Customers of the size that are used to "having it their way"; as a result, getting a deal with them often includes the need for a lot of customization.

The interesting thing about these two clients is how they perceive and approach that need to customize.

A Tale of Two Companies

Company A views customization somewhat as a pain and distraction, something to be controlled--I am assisting them with creating a standard solution offering menu outlining the "Base" offering, with a list of options available at an added cost. They really want to discourage certain customizations, absolutely won't do some things that will be asked, and want to make sure that they charge dearly for items that they find painful. They have the classic mentality of a product company; they want to do the amount of customization necessary to make a large sale to this important customer--but NO more than they have to.

Company B, which also considers itself a product company, has a very different mentality about customization. They welcome it, pride themselves on it, and position themselves to these potential large clients as someone that can quickly bring solutions to the client, customized to their desires. They want their big account reps to be scouring the big accounts for unique pain points or opportunities, which might fall within the company's core capabilities, enabling them to propose a customized solution. In fact, up till now, their product development approach has really been to find out what individual accounts want--and build it for them.

So which of these two business models is the best way for technology companies to go?

System Integration Business Models

Advantages:
*More flexible and able to change with shifts in the marketplace
*Not as capital-intensive due to less "betting" on upfront product development
*Easier to grow business organically with internally-generated capital than in a product business

Disadvantages:
*Less risk due to lower upfront investments
*More competition; System Integration is an "easier-entry" business
*Generally lower operating margins
*Growth is less scalable than a product-oriented company

Product-Focused Business Models

Advantages:
*Provides greater opportunity for strategic advantage and resulting fast growth
*Less competition if a product/brand/technology differential advantage is created
*Can scale much quicker if a hit product is developed
*Higher operating margins if product is successful
*Usually more marketing-driven and less labor-intensive
*If creating a very large company is the goal, much easier to raise outside capital

Disadvantages:
*Much more risk of "crib death", resulting in complete capital loss if first product has problems in development or marketing
*Harder to "get over the hump"; success is harder to come by, and success often happens as a step function after a difficult startup period

First of all, I want to emphasize that there isn't necessarily a "wrong" approach with either of these business models. You can make a lot of money pursuing either model. Both of the companies I have used as models have managed to attract blue chip customer which would be the envy of any company. What we are really talking about here is the difference between a classic product-driven company and a system integrator.

Company A is that classic product-driven company. They customize when they have to, but also have a point where they will say "no".

Company B also self-identifies itself as a product company, and in fact they have built their business around a small number of standard offerings. But as their core strategic advantage they really are utilizing relationships, the ability to customize beyond what standard product companies (especially larger ones) are willing to do, as well as to react very quickly to customer requests. They've built a very nice business doing this, but have some frustrations as well. They are highly dependent upon a small number of major accounts for virtually all of their revenue, and have the major revenue/profit swings that are associated with this type of business--up one year, back down the next. They also are in constant fear that a larger company will come along and "take away" their marketplace, because they've continuously failed to create new products which build upon a core offering which is very dated technologically. The core offering appears long-in-tooth and vulnerable. This company is very account-focused, and the lack of a market focus has kept them from being able to create additional, broadly marketable products which provide them with a strong proprietary advantage (and causes a lack of sleep at night!)

Company A understands who they are and what they want. That doesn't guarantee success, but it makes it much easier to build a plan that everyone agrees on. At that point success or failure usually depends upon execution, unless the plan is awful. If failure ensues in this scenario, more times than not, the problem is in execution. Company B's biggest problem is that they are floating right in the middle between the two business models. They are trying to leverage both of these business models, and struggling with execution, in some ways with both.

SUMMARY
It isn't impossible to combine these two business models successfully. I'm sure that many of you can't point to several examples of such a very successful compromise. In fact, many technology companies combine both of these models to some extent, with good success. But I find that usually, a company identifies itself primarily as a product company first, or a systems integrator. That identification is their strategic focus, and takes precedence when prioritizing the use of always scarce assets.

The secondary business model is usually utilized on an opportunistic basis. Product companies integrate and customize as needed to get a big deal. Integrators create "products" to fill the needs of a big account, and sometimes happily find they are saleable to other accounts. Occasionally, these "products" prove so widely saleable that they are spun off into a separate product company, or the integrator changes its focus into becoming a full-blown product company.

The most important thing, in my opinion, is to understand who you are, and what you are trying to accomplish strategically. It's the company's that are trying to leverage both business models at once, without one model taking the lead, that gets itself in a heap of trouble. That's my opinion--what's yours?

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

The Future of Wireless Communications

Land Lines are going away, right? Everyone says so. We hire young women, generally in their twenties, to help take care of my son. I can't remember the last time one of their phones had an Area Code associated with the place they are currently living.

That's because they don't use landlines--many people in their twenties and thirties move around a lot, and rely strictly on a cell phone as their sole or primary telephone. If they have a couple of roommates, occasionally they will also have a landline. But the number usually isn't given out, and doesn't appear to be used much.

So does this mean that we are rapidly heading toward the wireless society that pundits have been predicting for a number of years? Or is wireless growth slowing and about to settle into mature market mode, with modest incremental growth in the future? There are a number of factors on both sides of this discussion--let's explore a few.

Factors Pointing Towards Acceleration Of Wireless

Mobility
Society is becoming more and more mobile as time goes on, and everyone is getting used to being able to do things on the go, that used to be done only at home or the office. This trend appears to be one that will only continue--and is a positive thing to most people's thinking. I do think there may be a bit of a backlash in this area--"too much of a good thing"--I'll address this later on.

New Services
The addition of many new services should drive users to utilize wireless as an increasingly greater percentage of their total computing/communications device usage. Trends such as the merging of consumer cameras and music into smartphones create the types of new services that are driving increased wireless usage in the near term. Location-based services could provide another nice pop in growth, if they ever do reach their potential (and they've been "coming" for quite a while). I would note that I don't consider these trends the type of major innovations that will cause a fundamental, "step-function" like shift and a major positive effect on wireless usage. I view these new applications as incremental, something to continue the modest growth we are currently seeing in the wireless market--in the western world, at least. Outside of the developed world, of course, there is some phenomenal growth occurring. In terms of market development, I view rapid wireless growth in developing countries as a "catch up" phenomena.

Cost
This is a bit of a two edged sword. Like any other technology-driven market, the cost of electronics and services are being continually driven down, especially as wireless has scaled into a mass market, with corresponding economies of scale. Up to this point, at least, there has been sufficient competition to drive down the price of services from the wireless carriers. There seems to be some flattening of this price deflation in the US recently, however. On the other hand, as new services have been introduced, the "total bill" that consumers end up paying for ALL of their technology services (wireless, TV, Internet Access, etc.) has been going up. There will be a point where consumers say "enough is enough"; the total tech entertainment and communications bill simply can't rise forever.

Technology Innovation and Competition
I do believe that technological innovations, market scale, and competition will all play a factor in continuing to bring down overall costs in the long run. New technologies such as WIMAX, networked WiFi and in-home pico cell towers will provide technological alternatives for consumers, and therefore increased indirect competition. And there are certainly many exciting developments in research labs which we haven't even heard of yet, that will lead to increased innovation and continuing industry growth. I really believe that the technological aspect of wireless is still in its infancy, and will be the major factor that leads to long growth in wireless markets.


Factors Pointing Towards Slowing Of Wireless


QOS
The biggest issue, in my opinion, that will limit the future growth of wireless, is the lack of sufficient Quality-of-Service. Current cell phone service in the US sucks. There's no other way of putting it. Depending upon your carrier in a given metro area, service can still be spotty, with persistent dropped calls--even after all of these years, and the fact that cell phones are a ubiquitous mass market item. I still have 3 landlines in my house, two for business usage. I sure don't want to talk to a new client on a cell phone connection--if I can help it. I know many business people that don't feel this way, and use their cell phone exclusively--my opinion is hardly universal. But I don't really understand it. Especially inside, in homes and offices, you just can't trust that the call quality to be anywhere near what is demanded by an important business call. Some of this is based upon real issues--mountains in the way of radio waves, etc. But much of the problem is simply the wireless carriers jamming too many calls into too little spectrum, for cost reasons. I'm quite surprised that no one has yet come up with a "business quality" wireless service, which guarantees a higher level of call quality--much like a business or first class airline seat.

Complexity
As new features and services get added, even if they are welcomed, user interfaces and experiences almost always get more complex--at least initially. Complexity is the enemy of mass acceptance. So vendors need to be careful about adding new bells, whistles and new revenue-generating services faster than the market can become comfortable with them

Size
The size of devices, dictated by the need for mobility, works directly against a premium user experience for many functions. The new iPhone is a major step forward, for example, and sets a new standard for browsing the Internet on a truly portable device. Yet anyone that would rather surf the net on an iPhone, rather than any real computer, would have to be classified as insane. As more compelling online services are developed specifically for mobile devices, this may become less of an issue. But the size constraints required to make a good mobile device work against wireless devices for many current applications. Here is where I believe that truly breakthrough technologies--things like speech recognition, holographic displays and virtual keyboards--are needed to make a real dent in this issue.

User experience controlled by Telcos
The wireless carriers have held a stranglehold on the user experience thus far in the life of cell service. Because of this, you have large, conservative telephone companies basically deciding on what users want and should have, in an otherwise technology-driven space. Most of their decisions are driven by their own short term revenue concerns, with little vision on what can grow the market exponentially in the long run. At the most basic level, you can't even take your cell phone and use it on a new carrier network. A few major technology vendors are pushing to open things up, such as Apple and the open browsing experience with the iPhone, and Google's recent attempts to make new wireless spectrum open. But the wireless telcos still have a stranglehold on the market and will keep things as proprietary as possible for as long as possible. They're terrified a being left as just commodity bandwidth providers, like their wired counterparts were in the dialup Internet market. No one on the carrier side wants to see THAT happen again. Because of this, innovation in user experience will continue to be stunted.

It's Just "Too Much"
As I mentioned earlier in this article, we're all becoming instantly accessible no matter where we are. I am an early adopter of many types of gadgets--a real tech guy. I am also an email junkie. I always expected that I'd be one of the first users of a smartphone that provided the proper balance between a cell phone and a computer/data communications device. Certainly these devices have been refined, and exist today. But by the time it happened, I decided that I really didn't need to be quite that accessible. I'm not an emergency room doctor, nor a high level commodities trader that needs instant access to everything. It's rare that I'm not in front of a computer to get email access within a couple of hours. And I can always be reached with a regular call on my cell phone, office phone, or home phone. Do I really need a device that provides instant email, instant messaging and cell phone access? With the convenience of that device comes the penalty of never having a moment's peace that is totally within your control. It's my opinion that as modern life has accelerated to warp speed on a normal basis, more and more folks are going to be rejecting the notion that 24/7, instant access is a necessity--let alone a convenience.

Summary
It is always difficult to forecast how such a huge, important market will develop over time. In many ways wireless communications has already commoditized, and in other ways one can hypothesize that these technologies are in their infancy. If they are truly n their infancy--then forecasting the future is a dangerous game. My own feeling is that we are at a very early stage--a plateau of sorts, which appears much like the steady-state commoditization of mature markets. But I expect that there will be a number of disruptive technological changes coming, separated by a period of years where the negative factors slow growth, over the next couple of decades. Wireless communications will hit plateaus where it appears the market has matured and growth has slowed. Then a breakthrough new technology will appear, changing the game and re-igniting robust growth. What will those technological innovations be--holograms, speech recognition, or large increases in data throughput capacity in the wireless spectrum? That's where the guessing game begins. How do you see this market? What breakthroughs do you see in the coming years? Post a comment and enrich our discussion on this interesting topic.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Is It Time to Sell Your Hardware or Software Company?

This is the point that most, if not all, technology entrepreneurs aspire to reach. They dream of selling their company and laying on a beach somewhere, a colorful drink with the requisite umbrella, cooling in their hand.

There are a few of you out there that would never sell your company (it's your identity, after all), preferring to work forever lest you slow down and quickly deteriorate. But that's another story; we'll save your psychoanalysis for another day…

Some of you that want to sell your company have the most grandiose plan of all in mind: An initial public offering (IPO) through a brand name investment banker, bringing not only unimaginable riches, but fame along with that fortune. But that rarely happens--we'll also table that discussion for another column…

So let's get back to the great majority of you out there, who set out to some day cash in all of your hard work, by selling your company directly to another company. How do you know when the time is right?

WHAT MAKES PEOPLE WANT TO SELL

There are many triggers that set off serious reflection about whether or not to pursue a sale of a software or tech company. Let's examine a few of the more common:

1) A potential acquirer approaches the company with an offer
2) A strategic partnership grows closer, and it seems to make sense to grow closer still
3) Business is bad, and the principals begin to worry about losing everything
4) Negative cash flow is starving the business, forcing a sale to ward off bankruptcy
5) The owners need cash for another reason; be it investing in another business, or personal reasons
6) The owner/operators are burnt out, and no longer enjoy the business
7) Business has been robust, and the owners astutely consider whether now is the time to maximize their return, and minimize their risk by selling now
8) It becomes clear that there is a viable business, but is better suited/more valuable within a larger company
9) It's time for the owners to retire (it seems that very few high tech entrepreneurs make it that far!)

These are the most common reasons that come to mind--it is certainly not a complete list. Although we are talking about companies, the decision to sell ultimately comes down to a personal decision by one or a few individuals. So the reasons that these decisions happen are as varied as the population overall.

Given this list of common rationale for considering a sale, what are the RIGHT and WRONG reasons to consider a sale--if you want to maximize your return within your particular circumstances?

WRONG REASONS TO SELL

On an impulse--you've been running your business, not even think about selling your company. An offer comes along, and you get caught up in it--without having planned for it. Or things have been going poorly, and you are at an emotional low. Acting in these circumstances is similar to married, divorced or starting a new business--don't do it without thinking it through, or planning it properly.
Fear--don't sell just because you are scared; that's probably the best way to leave money on the table. There are ups and downs to every technology business. In my experience, things usually aren't as bad as they look at a specific "down" point in time--or as good as it looks at an "up" time. It's important to look at the prospects of a business over a period of time, considering both how things have gone and the forward-looking forecast.
Sales are in decline--this is the worst time to sell. If you do this, all leverage goes to the buyer. Of course, panic sets in, as you see your valuation melting away, and human instinct is to "get what you can" before it degrades further. But first consider the situation--is it reasonable that you can turn it around and reignite growth? Is the decline all specific to your business, or is it a cyclical market, or a bad economy overall--which might turn around in some reasonable time period? Sometimes selling under these circumstances is the right thing to do, and is unavoidable. But with proper planning, you may be able to sell your company BEFORE this happens, or turn it around first.

RIGHT REASONS TO SELL

You believe you've reached the peak of valuation--this seems obvious, but it is difficult to do. Finding the right time to sell is tricky; you don't want to exit too early and leave money on the table. So the inclination, given that tech businesses are value as a multiple of revenue or EEBITDA, is to hold on until growth stalls. But if you wait until you built up your sales so much that little "natural" growth" is left in your product/market cycle, the business may not look as attractive going forward, for potential buyers. Most strategic buyers, at least, would like to see growth prospects in a potential acquisition. So it might be best to "leave a little growth on the table"; it might lead to a higher multiple from the buyer.
You haven't been enjoying running the business for a very long time--I believe strongly this is a time to get out. If you have someone else whom you feel comfortable leaving in charge, that's fine. But otherwise, either you'll run it in to the ground from burnout, or you'll walk away and let someone else destroy it, because you just don't care anymore. Passion is important in our business; when it's gone, it's usually a good time to sell.
A fundamental shift in the market or your business--This could mean many things: you have lost a number of key people, the economics of your market changes, or a major investment will be required to keep the company on a growth path. The specifics here could be quite varied; the common thread is that with the change in fundamentals, there are real clouds on the horizon. This lead you to a thoughtful belief that continuing to operate the business as a standalone entity isn't optimal.

SUMMARY

An exit, or sale of your company, is a very important "life changing event" for the owners, founders and managers of a software or hardware company. I've seen sales come together very quickly, and completely unplanned. I view unplanned company sales as the business equivalent to a quicky divorce that comes out of an emotional event, without careful consideration, or an objective study of the alternatives and consequences. It is a once in a lifetime event for many, and should be given the careful consideration that those types of events deserve. That's my view--post a comment with your own Exit tales or opinions.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

Strategic Acquisitions for Software and Technology Companies

Acquiring new products or whole companies is a popular activity for many growth and market-share oriented companies. Is it a good idea?

Well, as I often say--it depends. I get involved in company or product acquisitions quite often in my consulting practice. There is nothing inherently good or bad about acquisitions in the technology business. However, there is nothing inherently bad about opening a restaurant, either. Nonetheless, a very high percentage of restaurants (I've seen figures as high as 90%) fail within 5 years. The failure rate for acquisitions may not be quite as high as for restaurant startups, but technology acquisitions are also judged to be failures at shockingly high rates. Caution should rule when approaching either of these very popular activities. As I'm fond of saying about success or failure in any complex business activity--the devil's in the details.

Common Motivations for Acquisition Activity

Let's examine the common reasons that acquisitions are considered in the first place:

1) It's exhilarating and "sexy" to buy another company
2) Growth for growth's sake (often pushed by investors)
3) The belief that buying a competitor is the ultimate "victory"
4) A consolidating market (often commoditizing) where there is only room for a few large players
5) Diversification
6) A great strategic fit where 1+1 truly equals 3

As you might have guessed, reasons 1-3 above aren't great justifications for such a risky activity. Number 4 can be a good justification, but often this is given as the rationale, when the actual market case doesn't truly support it. Number 5 can be a good or bad rationale, depending upon whether the business case really calls for diversification--or if focus would make more sense. Number 6 is by far the best reason to acquire a company, particularly if you aren't an industry giant, pitted in a death match with another titan of your marketplace.

So let's say you've actually thought it through, and have used sound analysis and judgment in deciding to pursue an acquisition. Congratulations for passing the first test--but there are still myriad things that can trip you up, on the way to acquisition success:

Great Ways to Fail

First acquisition done "on your own"--I strongly urge all first time acquirers, whether of the product or company variety, to seek assistance. Acquiring a company and even a product is very complex, with a lot of places to trip up. Retaining an experienced hand that has seen and gone through the mistakes before, can prevent you from the most expensive education of your life.
Bad cultural fit--In the excitement of an acquisition or a merger, people have a tendency to not look past the surface. It's much like dating an attractive potential mate, and proposing based upon infatuation, without establishing whether there is common ground in the way you live your lives. This is the business equivalent of marriage, folks. Compatibility in business philosophies and practices is crucial--and often overlooked, until after the fact, when everything is unraveling.
Poor organizational integration-- Even with an excellent evaluation of potential partners, a great many mergers fail based on the execution of integrating the organizations. That's because it is HARD. You are generally merging two organizations with disparate operating styles, as well as overlapping functions and people. Fear, uncertainty and doubt of the individuals involved can by ITSELF scuttle a potentially great fit. This area is often quoted as the reason most acquisitions fail.
Poor product integration--This is the reason a lot of acquisitions in software and high tech should be called off early in the process. It is often very difficult to rationalize how you are going to support two different code bases or technologies, aimed at the same market. The plan usually call for integrating them over time, but that often proves to be very difficult from a technical perspective. This is a real red flag when buying a direct competitor. Yet the price of the merger in high tech often assumes that the products can be integrated acceptably, without losing customers from either of the existing products. Unfortunately this is usually a very tall order
Paying too much--Price plays a big role in software and technology acquisitions. Due to high growth rates and the perceived need to move quickly in fast-growing, competitive technology markets, acquisitions are often priced in multiples of revenue. This is in contrast to the more conservative multiples of EBITDA in other less dynamic industries. Often the target isn't even profitable yet, but still commands a high price-to-revenue multiple, due to the "hot" nature of the market space, and perceived value of the acquired technology. This high price puts a severe strain on downstream execution of the merger to be "perfect", as discussed above.

So with all of the landmines out there in the acquisition arena, along with the high failure rate, is it simply nuts to consider acquisitions? Doesn't it make sense to just stay away from them? NOT NECESSARILY.

Sound Approaches to Pursuing Mergers

Buying innovation--This often happens when companies reach a certain size; they simply lose their ability to innovate. Rather than innovate internally, they do so by acquiring small companies with market-changing technologies, which may not have the resources to fully exploit in the marketplace on their own. Even though multiples here tend to be high, risk is somewhat mitigated relative to internal Research and Development that might not "pan out", and the size of the acquisition is often very modest, relative to the resources of the acquirer. This is an example of a true 1+1=3 strategic fit. This strategy has been used with great success by Cisco, Microsoft, and many other large companies with successful acquisition programs.
Buying companies or products that truly fill a hole in your offering--While some companies tend to overuse this as justification, acquisition of a reasonably priced company or product at just the right time, can mean the difference between continued growth or inevitable stagnation.
Buying undervalued assets--This is harder to do in high tech than in other industries; high tech companies have a habit of overvaluing their businesses and technologies. But an executive team with a key eye for a bargain can often pick up a diamond in the rough, for example a division that has suffered because it isn't a good fit with the parent company's core business
Truly appropriate diversification--Sometime you run out of steam in your current market, and the amount of cash flow generated by your current business dictates that an investment in another growth area may be prudent. The key here is to pick a market segment adjacent to the existing business, or at least a business that the management team can easily adjust too. However, management teams often are over-confident and deceive themselves, and end up investing in an area where they really don't belong.


I could go on and talk more about acquisitions for a very long time. But instead of putting you all to sleep, let's begin a dialogue on this topic. Inform us of your own Merger and Acquisition stories, best practices, and cautionary tales.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/

The Mechanics of Email Marketing

There are many different possibilities for technology and software companies, when it comes to formulating a marketing mix. I've written before about some of my favorites. One method that can be a big winner, if done well, can also be a big loser if done poorly. I'm referring to email marketing. If you want to be successful, you need to do it very well, as a result of SPAM and the general bursting of everyone's email inbox these days.

Why Email Marketing?
Email marketing can be so productive for a company, because unlike more passive forms of online marketing (ex: PPC advertising, Banner Ads), you can usually target you audience very effectively. This is especially true if you are using an in house list; by definition, these are prospects that have some reason to have an interest in your products. In B2B marketing, there is an abundance of excellent niche lists available for rental, to use in a targeted campaign. In B2C they aren't quite as good overall, but there may be very good lists available for a particular category.

Like all other forms of online marketing, another primary benefit to this method is the ability to measure results with great accuracy, granularity and speed. Lastly, you can make a very big impact quite quickly, unlike other online methods which may fit more into the "steady as you go" category.

The Elements of a Successful Email Campaign
So if "doing it right" is so important, just what are the important things to concentrate on, to achieve success in email marketing? Let's take a look at some of the most important elements:

Relevancy
First and foremost, your email must be relevant to the people who are receiving it. This is the great problem with the email marketing universe today, especially when considering the Spammers. Scattershot emails to every name that you can get your hands on not only won't raise your sales; it will ruin your online reputation, and prevent you from effectively marketing online in the future. It's been said by others that the difference between SPAM and legitimate commercial email is RELEVANCY. I firmly believe this. If your offer resonates with the list that you send it to, you will receive very few complaints.

The List
After relevancy, the next most important thing is the list. Absolutely do send your message to a list of folks that you have good reason to believe will be interested in what you have to offer. This is called target marketing; it is good practice across ALL marketing media. In email marketing--IT'S ESSENTIAL.

The Offer
Next comes the offer; often this is the most critical thing that you have a lot of control over. You need to remember that in email marketing, you are "going to the people". They aren't coming to you--actively looking for your product or service. As a result, your offer needs to be very aggressive to get their interest, and to compel them to act in the manner you desire. I always say that in direct marketing you want to make your very best offer. In email direct marketing, make them an offer that is so aggressive, it actually makes you wince a bit!

Creative
The above categories are the most critical to success. If you don't get them right, nothing else will matter. However, it's still very important to properly execute your relevant offer to the proper list. Even if you've got these elements formulate properly, poor creative execution can still lead to failure. My advice here is to make the email look like an email--not a web page. People's expectations in an email message are very different from visiting a website (and attention spans are short enough in web-viewing!). I recommend that you keep your message simple, direct and relatively short. Feel free to include some attractive, eye-catching graphics. But remember, this is direct marketing--not an art project. The most recent research suggests that email graphics has no effect whatsoever on response rates. It's all about the copywriting. Make your copy compelling, and get to the point very quickly--there isn't much time before the "delete key" get punched.

Legal
The legal aspects of marketing via email are important, and quite a bit more restrictive, relative to any other form of direct marketing. So make sure you are aware of the laws which apply to your message--they vary from country to country. In the US, for example, the CAN-SPAM act requires an honest subject line, "remove requests" instruction, and a listing of the sender's physical address--among other things. In some cases there are also state laws that apply. In Europe and other countries, the requirements can be far more restrictive, sometimes going so far as to require "opt-in" permission before any message can be sent. So be sure to research the local laws and comply with them at all times. To do otherwise risks ruining your online reputation--or worse.

Deliverability
This is one of the most difficult aspects to this particular direct marketing method. The advent of SPAM has created many barriers to delivering even the most welcomed messages to email inboxes. This was necessary, of course, for the preservation of the ability to use email at all. But deliverability is a very challenging, every changing scenario that has morphed into a marketing specialty of its own. There are many good places on the Web to assist you in getting your email delivered to your prospects. Return Path and Habeas are two of the more well known new companies that specialize in this area. I have used a free tool called SpamCheck to great effect over the last year, in screening my messages for deliverability problems. Contactology also has a great free Spam checking tool, as well as a turnkey service which enables you to easily create highly-deliverable email messages. EmailReach is another company that has some deliverability great tools. They aren't free, but they do offer a 24 hour free trial for their service.

Continuous Measurement & Testing
The last thing I want to mention, which should be part and parcel to any successful email program, is measurement and testing. Since email is an online medium, it's easy and cheap (or free) to measure your results. Frankly, doing any form of direct marketing without measurement is dumb. Online direct marketing with measurement is criminally dumb. There is just no excuse for it, other than laziness. Direct email marketing works best when it isn't considered a "single-shot" campaign. Each drop should be part of an overall campaign aimed at continuous improvement. Multiple elements of your message should be tested and measured with each drop. If you do this, you WILL improve your results as you go--and likely will end up with a highly successful, and repeatable, marketing method to help drive your company's growth.


Wrap Up
That's my review of the nuts and bolts of good email marketing. Let's hear from some of the other experts out there, on your best email practices. Post a comment so we can discuss this important marketing method in depth.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
www.pjmconsult.com

Pay Per Click (PPC) Online Advertising

It's known by several names: PPC or Pay Per Click advertising, CPC or Cost Per Click advertising, or sometimes by the best known PPC advertising engine, Google Adwords.

Pay Per Click advertising is no longer new; as a result, much of the "easy" money has already been made. But I'm struck by how many companies I run across that are NOT using this method, to attract prospects or make sales on the web. While it is a competitive channel, unlike the early days of this medium, it is still one of the most effective, and cost-effective, method to promote most any product or service online.

PPC should not only be a staple of the promotion budget of nearly every company, it should be one of the first promotion methods utilized on behalf of a new product, service or company. Here's why:

Complex to Optimize--But Simple to Start
PPC advertising campaigns can be very complex and extensive, and will be once you get them optimized. Many companies are spending tens of thousands of dollars/month on PPC. At that point they will be making a lot of money for you--so it's worth the investment and the trouble!

But getting started is quite easy--anyone can do it. You simply open an account with one of the major advertising engines, which will take you all of five minutes or so. You can put together a basic test campaign in less than an hour's time. I always recommend starting with Google Adwords first. Once you are successful and understand what you are doing on Adwords, it is pretty easy to move your functioning campaigns to the other major systems (Yahoo Search Marketing, and Microsoft Adcenter). There are differences, but they are fundamentally the same.

Adwords is the most powerful and has by far the greatest reach, yet it is still very easy to set up your initial trial campaigns. There is an excellent set of online Help and tutorials to walk you through the basics. When you set up your initial campaigns, you WILL make mistakes. But don't worry. Just set your budget limits to a low number that you can easily afford, and you will quickly climb the learning curve. Once you've learned the basics of what you are doing, you can then seek assistance to do the final optimizations to your campaigns, which will lead to the greatest success. You may decide to "do it yourself"; if so, there are a lot of different experts out there with modestly priced guides and services, to bring you to the top of your PPC game. Or at this point, you may wish to outsource your PPC advertising activity. I always recommend opening an account on your own first, even if you plan to outsource. The knowledge that you gain will help you in hiring a third party who will best optimize your PPC activity.

Easy on the Budget
If you are a thinly capitalized startup company, or otherwise on a tight budget, you can start a PPC campaign that brings you results that you can continually improve, for just a few dollars/month. As usually is the case, the more money available the better. The more money you have to spend, the faster you can receive statistically significant results--which can then be used to tweak your campaigns for improvement, over and over again. But if you can only spare $50, $100 or $500 per month at first--don't let that deter you. In most cases you can get started and move your campaign forward, at even these low budget levels. The beauty of PPC is that you really don't need to commit to a large budget, until you're sure that you've got a profitable campaign. At that point, you'll want to pour as much money into your campaign that you can muster! Once a campaign is proven profitable, pouring more money into it is like turning up a profit meter!

Precise Measurements
One of the major advantages of PPC advertising, compared to traditional adverting and other promotional methods, is the ability to precisely measure nearly every important aspect of your campaign. The ability to track your results is much greater than any other form of promotion I've utilized in my career. This measurement precision turns PPC advertising into the most scientific form of marketing available. After some initial hypotheses with respect to Ad copy, keyword selection and landing page design, it is possible to systematically improve your results by tweaking these elements of your campaign, almost forever--increasing your profitability as you go.

Fast Results
The other important aspect of PPC advertising, in conjunction with measurement precision, which makes this medium so systematic and scientific, is the ability to get this precise feedback in near real time. As an example, in traditional, offline advertising campaign, you need to invest tens of thousands of dollars upfront. After this large investment, you won't even know if your campaign was successful for months. With PPC advertising, you quickly get feedback in the form of precise, quantifiable results, sometimes only minutes after you started it. As a result, you can have a fully optimized, profitable PPC campaign working, before you would even get your initial measurements with other methods.

The Ideal Platform to Test Messaging, Campaigns and Offers
The expediency and precision of PPC advertising make it a great platform to kick off any new product, campaign or company. It is very efficient way of testing messages, offers and websites. Once you've discovered and proven the things that work best, you can transfer this knowledge to your rollout of other promotional vehicles. This greatly reduces the risk inherent in starting up new marketing campaigns of any type, and should increase your profitability across platforms, and promotional vehicles, from day one.

Summary
As you can tell, I am a big proponent of PPC advertising as a staple of every marketing budget. Unless your market is so small that it consists of only a few hundred prospects, I recommend it to nearly every software and high tech company on the planet. Consumer, Enterprise or SMB--it's very effective across many markets. In fact, the more of a niche your market is, the more cost-effective PPC becomes, due to reduced competition and lower resulting bid prices. There are a few highly competitive markets these days which are so competitive, that it's hard to run a profitable PPC campaign. But these are few and far between, and by far the exception to the rule. So if you aren't active in PPC advertising today--get started! Give it a try, and let me know your questions or comments.

Phil Morettini
PJM Consulting
http://www.pjmconsult.com/